Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair

ex-Planning Commission economist

Compiled from 1 recorded interview. Every statement below is drawn from the passage cited beside it.

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair is an economist who served as Chief Economist of the Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan. He was also Regional Lead Economist of the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah.

Education

Zubair has said that a generation or two in his family saved money to pay his tuition fees at the London School of Economics. [1]

Career

Zubair has said that while he was at the Planning Commission, a small exercise was run on Vietnam's productivity. He has also said it would take 20 years to reach where Vietnam is on per capita income. [1]

Retirement and return to Pakistan

Zubair has said he retired in August 2020. He has said he could have settled anywhere abroad, but he and his family chose to settle in Pakistan. He has described his decision to return to Pakistan as one that, like many other expatriates, he also made. [1]

Views on political stability

Zubair has said that a continuity of government from 2008 onwards gave rise to hope. He has said the PTI government that came in 2018 added to the positivity. He has also said the entire system has been totally exposed and a raw power struggle is in full display. Economic institutions, in his view, are closely tied to the quality of the political process, which shapes economic outcomes. [1]

Zubair has said Egypt and Myanmar are military-led governments. He has said Bangladesh saw slippages in wealth, income distribution and job opportunities despite very robust economic performance. [1]

Views on chaos and black swan events

Zubair has said that the last 40 years have been lived in a system of chaos. He has said non-linear systems create randomness and uncertainty that are a killer for economic performance. He has explained that a black swan event has an extremely low probability but could have devastating consequences if it occurs. [1]

As examples of black swan events, Zubair has cited a street hawker's self-immolation in Tunisia, which led to protests across the Arab region, and COVID-19 at the global level. He has cited the February 8 election as a third example. He has said the results of that election and what followed have unravelled political stability in Pakistan. [1]

Views on economic reform

Zubair has said reforms need a clear understanding, prioritization and proper sequencing. He has said a reform cannot be defined without an ideal benchmark to aim for, and that a reform is a measure of distortion between where a country is and the ideal. He has also said economy-wide reforms will always create losers, and that all the stakeholders should be brought to the table to reform and to take the blame and the pain equally. [1]

Zubair has said resources go to the most powerful or well-connected entities rather than the most efficient. He has said consumers have a right to quality and affordable products, and that PIA and the railways have suffered financial mismanagement. On agriculture, he has said the farmer produces wealth yet is the least compensated in the supply chain, and he has questioned how productivity can be raised in agriculture when support prices are fixed and money is not allowed to move from urban to rural areas. He has said adding sales and income taxes would change margins across the board and affect tens of millions of people. [1]

Timeline

2020
Retired, by his own account, in August.[1]

Appearances

DateTitleWhere
2024-09-18 Pakistan is sliding into chaos. The only exit is a third republic. Thought Behind Things

Frequently asked questions

Who is Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair is an economist. He was Chief Economist of the Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan and Regional Lead Economist of the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah.[1]

What does Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair do?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair is an economist who has held senior economist roles at the Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan and the Islamic Development Bank. He has said he retired in August 2020.[1]

Where did Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair study?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair has said that a generation or two in his family saved money to pay his tuition fees at the London School of Economics.[1]

Where does Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair live?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair has said that he could have settled anywhere abroad, but he and his family chose to settle in Pakistan. He has said that, like many expatriates, he decided to return to Pakistan.[1]

What does Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair say about economic reform?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair has said reforms need a clear understanding, prioritization and proper sequencing. He has said economy-wide reforms will always create losers, and that all stakeholders should be brought to the table to take the blame and the pain equally.[1]

What does Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair say about black swan events?

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair has explained that a black swan event has an extremely low probability but could have devastating consequences if it occurs. He has cited events in Tunisia, COVID-19 and the February 8 election as examples.[1]

References

  1. Pakistan is sliding into chaos. The only exit is a third republic. . Thought Behind Things , 2024-09-18.
Show the source passages (32 statements)
  1. Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair was the Chief Economist of the Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan. Dr. Mohammad Ahmed Zubair is the Former Chief Economist of the Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan
  2. Dr. Mohammed Ahmed Zubair was the Regional Lead Economist of the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah. the Former Regional Lead Economist of the Islamic Development Bank of Jeddah
  3. He has said that while at the Planning Commission, a small exercise was run on Vietnam's productivity. jab main planning commission mein tha toh ek chota sa humne exercise ki thi, ki agar hum Vietnam ki total factor productivity
  4. He has said it would take 20 years to reach where Vietnam is on per capita income. how long will it take to reach the per capita income? Toh humein it will take us 20 years to reach where Vietnam is.
  5. He has said that a generation or two in his family saved money to pay his tuition fees at the London School of Economics. main mere pardada se main seedha London School of Economics nahi chala gaya. You know, there was somewhere in between a generation or two which saved the money to pay for my tuition fees.
  6. He has said he retired in August 2020. I was faced with a dilemma when I was retiring in August 2020.
  7. He has said he could have settled anywhere abroad, but he and his family chose to settle in Pakistan. Before that, I had the opportunity or enough financial resource to settle anywhere. Anywhere. But, you know, my family and I made the decision that we will settle here in Pakistan.
  8. He has said that, like many expatriates, he decided to return to Pakistan. And like many other expatriate, you know, I also decided to return to Pakistan.
  9. He has said that a continuity of government from 2008 onwards gave rise to hope. there was a hope ke, you know, ek continuity of government chal rahi thi 2008 onwards.
  10. He has said the PTI government that came in 2018 added to the positivity. And then the PTI government came in 2018. Toh, you know, that added to the positivity.
  11. He has said the entire system has been totally exposed and a raw power struggle is in full display. the nakedness of the entire system has been totally exposed. And the raw power struggle is in full display.
  12. He has said Egypt and Myanmar are military-led governments. aap agar Egypt aur Myanmar ko dekhein, it's clear. It's a military-led government.
  13. He has said Bangladesh saw slippages in wealth, income distribution and job opportunities despite very robust economic performance. despite very robust economic performance, the overall society, yani Bangladesh mein, you know, nobody talked a lot. Um, but you know, wealth and income distribution and job opportunities mein badi matlab uh slippages hui thi
  14. He has said economic institutions are closely tied to the quality of the political process, which shapes economic outcomes. Aur economic institutions are intimately connected with the quality of your political process.
  15. He has said that the last 40 years have been lived in a system of chaos. we have now lived over the last 40 years in a system of chaos
  16. He has said non-linear systems create randomness and uncertainty that are a killer for economic performance. Usme bahut saari non-linearities hoti hain, jis ke andar randomness, uncertainty create ho jaati hai. Aur woh killer hai for economic performance.
  17. He has explained that a black swan event has an extremely low probability but could have devastating consequences if it occurs. agar hum ek aisa event jiski probability of its occurrence is extremely low, but should it occur, it can have devastating consequences.
  18. He has cited a street hawker's self-immolation in Tunisia, which led to protests across the Arab region, as a black swan example. jaise Tunisia mein ek uh street hawker ne apne aap ko aag lagayi and that led to a series of protest across the Arab region
  19. He has cited COVID-19 as a second black swan example, at the global level. Dusri example hai woh uh COVID-19 ki hai, which was at the global level.
  20. He has cited the February 8 election as a third black swan example. Aur teesri example jo February 8th ka election tha
  21. He has said the results of the February 8 election and what followed have unravelled political stability in Pakistan. uske baad jo results aaye aur uske baad jo subsequent happening hui hain, toh it has really unraveled the political stability in Pakistan
  22. He has said reforms need a clear understanding, prioritization and proper sequencing, with no quick fixes. It has to be you know, based on a very clear understanding, prioritization and proper sequencing of reforms.
  23. He has said a reform cannot be defined without an ideal benchmark to aim for. You cannot answer what does it mean unless you have a ideal situation in mind.
  24. He has said a reform is a measure of distortion between where a country is and the ideal. It's a measure of distortion between where you are and what is the ideal.
  25. He has said consumers have a right to quality and affordable products. Consumers too have a right. A right to quality and affordable products.
  26. He has said PIA and the railways have suffered financial mismanagement. Ab PIA mein financial mismanagement hui hai, railways bhi aise hi hai, financial mismanagement hai.
  27. He has said economy-wide reforms will always create losers. if you are doing economy-wide uh reforms, usme hamesha se losers honge.
  28. He has said resources go to the most powerful or well-connected entities rather than the most efficient. automatically the the resources are not focused towards the most efficient entity. They are actually focused towards the most powerful or the most well-connected entity.
  29. He has questioned how productivity can be raised in agriculture when support prices are fixed and money is not allowed to move from urban to rural areas. agriculture ke andar aapne ek socialist tareeqe se support price bhi rakhi hui hai, aap apna paisa urban area se rural mein jaane nahi de rahe, to aap kaise productivity badhane ki koshish karenge
  30. He has said the farmer produces wealth yet is the least compensated in the supply chain. farmer which is the only one in the entire supply chain that is actually producing wealth, he is the least compensated
  31. He has said adding sales and income taxes would change margins across the board and affect tens of millions of people. jab aap uske andar sales tax ko add karna shuru karenge, income taxes lagayenge to the margins have to change across the board and that impacts a you know, hundreds like tens of millions of people.
  32. He has said all the stakeholders should be brought to the table to reform and to take the blame and the pain equally. let's reform and let's bring all the stakeholders to the table and tell everyone ke listen, we all have to take the blame and the and the and the pain equally.