Faisal Aftab: the 1971 system is over, and Pakistan is mispriced

सामने ख़बीतिनों अंज़रात welcome back to another episode of thought behind things. आज हमारे साथ एक बहुत ही ख़ास मेहमान मौजूद है जो दो बार पहले आ चुके हैं और दो हज़ार बाइस में गालेबन वो last time आए थे. I think दो हज़ार बाइस में last time या first time दो हज़ार बाइस में आए थे. जी जी. और उस time उन्होंने एक set of predictions दी थी जो कि काफी हद तक जो है 95% I would say कि on the dot पूरी हुई है शायद timelines में थोड़ा सा up and down होगा. Recently उस time के ऊपर तो generally वह shadows से काम कर रहे थे most people didn't really know much about him. We covered his story in detail in that episode as well but I wanted to have him back क्योंकि recently एक show चल रहा है Pakistan में बहुत ज़्यादा popular हुआ है shark tank के नाम से where he is one of the judges and so we thought let's have a conversation, let's understand कि shark tank कैसा जा रहा है and then overall Pakistan की economy क्योंकि बहुत सारे लोग सवाल कर रहे थे कि यार यह shark tank हो रहा इस पर इतने you know करोड़ों रुपए की investments हो रही हैं क्या वाकई Pakistan में इतनी है यशी लगी हुई है business boom कर रहा है क्योंकि sentiment तो बड़ा negative है and so I thought के let's have फ़ैसल back on the show फ़ैसल अवताब sir thank you so much for being part of the show. Thank you for having me it's always a pleasure. मैं थोड़ा सा start करूंगा just want to understand how is the shark tank experience?

यार it was I was very very pleasantly surprised. जब मुझे Sony और उनकी local production team ने approach किया था around I think tail end of 2023 में last year तो शुरू मेरी काफी reservation थी because एक तो we are institutional investors and there is a whole decorum we have to keep and you are going out to the general public तो उसका feedback completely different होता है. Right. And then you are putting yourself out there. तो वह एक reservation वह थी that for that I consulted with my family and friends to come to conclusion. The second thing was that I was worried about the quality of the production. Right. Because Pakistan idol भी हो चुका है और उसकी production quality अच्छी नहीं थी तो that that can also damage you but उस्वान मलिक who is the main executive producer and licensee from Sony he is a very dynamic young man. When I saw the vision then when I saw some of the schemas of the set and what the action plans were I got more confident and then you know I was very happy कि when I actually got to the set and I saw the quality of the cameras and the shoots and I mean there was a big budget production and you had the actual global producer of Sony for the show Arch he was actually physically present making sure the quality controls there. क्योंकि normally यही होता ना कि global चीज़ आती है उसको बस वह

half cooked के सम की एक localization Pakistan idol is a great example of that and then normally doesn't catch on. मैं जब इसको देख रहा था तो मेरे लिए सबसे बड़ी curiosity यही थी कि startups, business that's not a mass market conversation in Pakistan unfortunately. Right? And पिछले दो साल मैंने उसको बड़ा extensively cover किया है. Majority जो masses हैं उनको इतनी समझ नहीं आती और TV is a purely mass market medium but surprisingly the feedback has been incredible like I don't know was it because they were able to simplify it a lot even though मैं देख रहा था उसमें कि जितने भी लोग हैं वह generally ज़्यादा English speaking है. You know, रोमाना has a has an accent as well तो वह एक बड़ा वह था कि normally TV के ऊपर ना वह बड़ा cooked up के समका एक localized बिल्कुल सलीस उर्दू के साथ लोगों को लेकर आते हैं. But somehow it worked. Why why do you think चलिए production तो थी but do you think there was an appetite for something like this? Was it Shark Tank India?

Absolutely I think so सबसे पहला जो point था वह था Shark Tank India. मुझे खुद नहीं पता था कि लोग इतना ज़्यादा Shark Tank India को follow करते हैं. मैंने last time I watched Shark Tank was in The US. So that I think had a huge factor कि एक वह brand recognition और knowledge थी and subsequently by the way I also found out when I talk to a lot of younger people or even businessman वह कहते हमने अक्सर अपनी P and L analysis इस तरह की चीज़ें Shark Tank India देखकर learn की थी. तो I think वह एक बहुत बड़ा factor है. एक और जो बड़ा factor है कि आपकी economy जो हमारी है वह एक deflationary event से जा रही है जो traditional economy है brick and mortar. तो वहां पर आप and I'm talking about the big manufacturing jobs and FMCG those type of jobs तो पाकिस्तानी बहुत ज़्यादा resilient हैं and they find a way तो एक हर बंदा एक तरीके से entrepreneur बनी गया है over the last five years even if you have a job freelancing कर रहे हैं या आप T shirts बेच रहे हैं you know restaurants whatever it is makeup there was the ideas the type of pictures we saw was truly amazing तो वह I think एक element है तीसरा element जो बाद में discuss करेंगे because I think जो younger audience हैं वह Swift on हैं एक AI की वैसी जो disruption आ रही है उसमें आगे नौकरियां नहीं हैं. Right. तो basically I think हर बंदे को entrepreneur बनना ही पड़ेगा to survive.

So I think ये तीनों factors timing could not have been better. YouTube analytics के हिसाब से हमारी video के viewers में से साठ features ऐसे हैं जिन्होंने channel को subscribe नहीं किया हुआ. अब मेरी आपसे एक छोटी सी request है कि बड़ा ही कर्म अगर आप हमारी videos देखते हैं और आपको उसमें मज़ा आता है या आपको कोई value मिलती है तो please channel को subscribe ज़रूर कर दें और वो आकर बताएंगे कि exactly Syria में on ground situation क्या है. अभी जो तमाम international guests हैं और ये जो international insight लेकर आ रहे हैं इस तरह के लोगों को reach out करने के लिए subscriber count बहुत important होता है. इस वजह से मैंने कभी भी आप लोगों से नहीं बोला they can't fully be real, right? Because there's an entertainment factor that allows for the consumer to keep watching. अब जिस तरह से वह मैं देख रहा था वह एक साहब है वह तीन सौ अरब वाले. अच्छा वह मुझे बाद में पता लगा वह मैंने उनको Instagram पर देखा है. Don't know if you've seen him on Instagram. I I subsequently I went in स्वयं. Right and so he has guy persona and character and सारा कुछ and so it makes sense you know he he was there he did outrageous pitch and made up a great entertainment value and so automatically बहुत serious pitches जो है वह इतनी viral नहीं हुई. इतनी यह pitch viral हो गई. Right? Because वह so how much of this is actually actually real और अगर मैं यह भी ना कहूं कि it's not real obviously but how much of it actually pans out because आप आते हैं कोई nobody will ever invest tons of money by hearing a thirty minute pitch. तो वह ज़हर है के उसका process क्या था? Was it due diligence happening before when people applied and then once the pitch is done तो उसके बाद follow up due diligence होती है. How much of these actually

जो fundings हुई हैं वह actually pan out होती हुई नज़र आ रही है आपको. बिल्कुल. नहीं that that all those are great questions. So let me unpack it. तो जो उनका format है it's actually pretty smart the way they do it because reality TV है तो they have to capture our expressions. So शुरू में जब इन्होंने launch किया तो when they open up applications तो बहुत से businesses I have a friend in इस्तामाद नून and co they do amazing stuff with rocks. Yeah yeah yeah. तो I said किया तुम why don't you go on this show? तो मैंने introduction करवा दी with the sharp tank team तो उन्होंने मुझे फ़ौरन message कर दिया कि अब वह disqualify हो गए and I said what do you mean? उन्होंने उन्होंने हमें mention किया था कि you know we do the selection तो I didn't realize कोई इतना strict है. Right. The thing is कि we are completely blind to who's pitching until they walk on the set doing production. Right. Which I think is great. तो उनका वह पूरा अपना criteria होता है जिसके बाद select करते हैं. I am sure उसमें खुद से वह ऐसे लोग करते होंगे select which I think most likely was the case with the general with that big demand. Yeah yeah. So I उनको पता है कि content value क्या है but generally जो pitches थी वह बहुत ही I mean I was impressed with the quality. तो there's a there's that pre vetting वह जो करते हैं Right. Baseline और selection उनका criteria होता है. जो pitches भी थी जो air हुई हैं उससे बहुत ज़्यादा pitches shoot हुई थी not a big pitch makes it to TV. Number two जो आप लोगों को edited time दिखा रहे हैं वह यह हमारे question time जो होते थे वह दो दो घंटे तक चलते थे. अच्छा. तो यह कोई एक दिन नहीं this went on for like a whole month. Right. Shooting हो रही थी तो वह फिर उसको edit करके forty five minute घंटे के episode में उन्होंने pitches दिखानी होती है तो आठ minute में नौ minute में दिखा रहे होते हैं. तो we get reasonable amount of time to ask questions. Next comes funding. Right. After the show ends उसके बाद फिर obviously हमने जाकर due diligence करनी है because like जैसे हमारी अस्सी दुनिया में भी यही होता है जब venture capital में आपको एक pitch deck आता है आप meeting करते हैं एक pitch होती है उसके बाद जब आप जाकर due diligence करते हैं total address और market की बहुत से factors की तो numbers add up नहीं करते. तो जो उनका जो उस्मान मलिक and global producer जो Arch उनसे हमने पुछा था कि what percentage of pitches actually go through तो उनकी global average is about 40% or so that actually end up going through because a lot failing which is better than we see. Right. And he said कि look you have to adjust it for South Asia it may be even lower. Right. Maybe 25%

but 25 is still significant. Right. That end up going through. I think it's a start right like मुझसे लोग पूछे थे तो मेरा यह था कि I mean there's always an entertainment value to reality TV so I obviously take that with a grain of salt but I think कि there's so season one may be जो पहले दो तीन seasons हैं मेरे लिए the core value is not the businesses कि कोई बड़ा conglomerate वन जाएगा. मेरे लिए core value is

the education that's being imparted because वह फिर season four, five, six में शायद आपको reflect होते हुए नज़र आए हैं कि आप business अपने आप को set करके. So it's a long term process. In fact जो आप बात कर रहे हैं ना जो main reason मैं convince हुआ था इसको करने पर वह यह था because basically मैंने दो तीन लोगों से यह वजह मैं आपको बात बता रहा हूं कि people learn from it. तो मेरे अपने ख्याल से जो education process हो रहा है इस discourse पर यह वैसे तो closed door में होता है ना? उससे अब जो surprisingly post airing what I learned was कि आठ साल, दस साल, बारह साल के जो बच्चे हैं वह मुझे approach करें and they are this with the key. तो this is to me and by the way the reason why I am so excited this is happening is because I think entrepreneurship

is gonna become extremely important Yeah. Going forward, right? It's the heroes that you are building. Right? It's beyond the cricketers and the जंगजू and you are actually saying कि listen do a business and you are gonna be celebrated. जो आपका एक आजकल बड़ा viral भी हुआ हुआ है कि यार वह जो है ना बहुत सारे जो startups आए हैं उनको FBR पीछे लग गई है. Is that true?

I don't know ये I mean ये one of the somebody made this post on LinkedIn in fact I know the guy because it's one of the startups industry

person but तो I saw it. मैंने उसको backtrack करने को कि मेरे पास कोई legit नहीं आई but I don't know कि वो industry के अंदर है. Yes he was parroted

Right. But I think it was a gimmick post maybe. Right. And then everybody in the media picked it up. But irrespective अगर वह होता भी ना तो मेरा उसमें thought basically यह थी कि

what short time, shows like short time do is that जो बार बार आप आ के कह रहे हैं ना top line, bottom line, books ये वो हमारे यहां आसान है business तो ऐसा होता ही नहीं है. हमारे यहां तो business सारा जुगाड़ पर हो रहा होता है वो बस एक ही बंदा रखा है वो accountant भी है वो HR वाला भी है वो सारा कुछ है and so if the if FBR is coming in that's probably because you've kept your business out of the books और आप उसको तरीके से नहीं कर रहे हैं. तो बजाय like a lot of people were like देखो जरा FBR आ के ना entrepreneurship तबाह करना चाह रहा है. मेरी recently बात हुई Avension के जो founder थे ताकि मेरा दस पंद्रह लाख रुपए का tax बच जाए and because of that under the radar you can never truly be you know we can't be globally competitive we can't be वह systems में हम नहीं आ सकते. So देखिए इसमें अब दो दो चीज़ें आती हैं.

So जब मैं मैंने venture capital क्यों किया Pakistan में? शुरू में मैं आया था early stage. The reason was कि जब मैं आकर मैंने local market को देखा. मैंने देखा कि जो यहां की stock market या equity market है वहां पर अक्सर companies book value से below trade कर रही हैं. तो I'm like यह क्या चक्कर है? तो then you realize कि देखिए two sets of books. Right. Similarly private equity या growth stage करना यहां पर impossible रहता है because एक बार एक culture set हो जाए उसको आकर change करना to actually scale a company and help scale with the capital. It's very high risk. Right. तो I realize कि greenfield यानी कि पहला check early stage ethos आप set करें. Right. So हमारी जो companies हैं उनमें day one से यही set करते हैं and so similarly a lot of these businesses that are starting I mean most of these were not that mature businesses. तो वहां पर liabilities आप कह लेती है ही नहीं अभी tax की. Right. कि top line दस करोड़ की हो गई, बीस करोड़ की हो गई. Right? तो even though valuation बेशक अपनी कर रहे हैं billion rupees की वह हम future pricing कर रहे होते जैसे हम tech में कर रहे होते या startups में कर रहे होते हैं but in reality अगर आप देख लें तो आपको अभी भी chance होता है इस वक्त आकर उनका ethos ठीक करने का. Right. कि books को सही रखो because अगर आपने long game दिखाना है. But सवाल मेरा इसी से connected basically यह था कि अब आप चूंकि due due diligence phase में है A lot of the deals that we were getting इस समय तो नहीं था कि कोई भी उठकर आ गया. हां. तो उन्होंने उनको shift किया हुआ था कि भाई baseline financials हैं. Right. चंदे की उस level की नीत थी जो आप कह लें कि उन्होंने different types सी deals रखी हुई थी depending on the nature of the business but बहुत से ऐसे थे जहां पर ठीक चीज़ें Systems बनी हुई थी, books maintain हो रही देखिए वह तो हमें कभी भी ना उस level की नहीं मिली. You can't find the perfect company. If you find the perfect company then the opportunity is gone. तो वह that's part of us as investors कि उनको tweak करें, systems जैसे बहुत सोने lot of them have ideation stage बहुत ही आप कह रहे हैं माम and pop shop level पर internet पर थोड़ी सी चीज़ें बेच गई interaction मिल गई हज़ार आपने bottles बेची तेल की. Right. अब एक deal I did it was a single mother it was a combination of a support like CSR deal and I think that has potential तो वहां पर I mean she sold about a thousand bottles of this hair oil from her native village. Right. That became very successful. तो अब वहां पर इतनी कम receipts हैं लेकिन immediately आते साथ one of the things we are doing is the due diligence is उनका setup कर रहे हैं कि आपने company बनानी है, आपने यह करना है and she had gone to an NICE so they had done some baseline work. Right. My point is you have to look at these companies very different from the mid size companies जो billions या करोड़ मलती invoicing कर रही है और वह declare नहीं कर रही है इसके Of course, of course And makes I don't think FBR के पास इतना time है कि वह छोटे बच्चों का गहराज़ करें. हां. उनकी आजकल उनकी बड़ी और बड़ी

fishes जो है उनके पीछे वह पड़े हुए हैं. मेरे channel की primary कामयाबी की वजह मेरे viewers हैं यानी कि आप लोग और उसकी वजह यह है कि आप तमाम लोग जो community हमने यहां पर बनाई है जो पिछले चार साल से startups के बारे में, economy के बारे में, geopolitics के बारे में conversations को sun भी रही है और उनके सवालों के जवाबाद देते हैं. आपस में एक दूसरे के experiences से सीखते हैं और साथ ही उसमें एक wide range of perks available हैं जो कि मैंने अपनी website में detail में list किए हैं. तो अगर आप interested हैं मेरा inner join करने में जहां पर मैं अपनी सबसे real और and hopefully I'll talk to you in my next live session. Nonetheless, आइए वापस चलते हैं podcast पर. Makes sense. मुझे एक और बात यह बताएं कि अब funnel है ना? Pakistan में generally हम कहते कि यार savings rate बड़ा ख़राब है, investment rate बड़ा ख़राब है, stock market में IPO होता नहीं है. सैकड़ों restaurants खुलते हुए नज़र आते हैं और सैकड़ों restaurants बंद होते हैं नज़र आते but inefficiently business activity होती है और वह बंद हो रही होती है. Normally you would imagine all over the world के stock market be that place where आम आदमी जो है वह जाकर के पैसे को consolidate करके legitimate companies में जाकर actually scale पर grow कर सकता है. Essentially अगर मैं funnel की बात करूं तो आप लोग आए हुए और आप कह रहे हैं कि यार हम due diligence करके अच्छे छोटे businesses के अंदर invest करके उनको grow करा रहे हैं. But you don't have an infinite capital right? You're not a bank that's essentially printing capital. So पीछे से एक इस funnel का एक पिछला हिस्सा भी फिर आ जाता है जिसमें now investors are also getting educated. Yes. And they are no longer now saying कि भाई अच्छा नहीं हमें you know छह महीने के अंदर पैसा double चाहिए है. हमें file के ऊपर चालीस हज़ार रुपया महीने का चाहिए है. उनको भी बताया जा रहा है कि यार venture capital क्या होता है? Long term growth क्या होती है? क्या आपको interest आया है अब लोगों की तरफ से कि यार you know what next season you know how can we invest in your VC and so then you can invest that capital over there as well? So देखिए

it's a perfect question because it kind of answers why this is the right time कि Shark Tank launch हुआ है and VC तो already कर रहे थे we've been doing it but अब वह accelerate होने वाली है सारी चीज़ें. Right. So जिस दुनिया को I think हमारे सारे economist और everybody keeps referring to एक होती है ना आपकी past resonance होती है from the system. वह system जो basically nineteen seventy one में शुरू हुआ था वह twenty twenty में end हो गया है. I would say in fact twenty twenty one उसके पचास साल पूरे हो गए हैं. Explain that system for those who don't know. So we it always comes down to the monetary system under underlying. So Pakistan में हंसा inflation सारी चीज़ें जो feel आपको हो रही हैं it's all linked to the global. हमारी currency reserve currency तो नहीं है ना? तो 71 में जो dollar which Brentwood system 1945 में start हुआ था which was the dollar was a gold back currency. वह system 71 में 1971 में end हो गया था. Right. जब dollar depack हो गया था gold से. उसके बाद अगले दस साल अगर आप US की interest rates देखें तो Pakistan की तरह ही थे. Right. उनको जाकर अठारह percent पर लेकर जाना पड़ा था to restore confidence. Right. And in the meantime उन्होंने petrol dollar बना दिया. अब वह system जो है exactly आप कह लें twenty twenty one में आकर खत्म हो गया है. Right. And अभी तक सबको memo नहीं मिला है. But लोगों को feel हो रहा है कि things change हो गई हैं. अगर आप दुनिया को देखें you know most institutions international institutions somewhat have been sidelined in the world right? तो उसमें और आपकी pretty much जो wars हैं वह empires के doorstep पर आ गई हैं. पहले वह Iraq में हो रही थी, Syria में हो रही थी या Afghanistan में हो रही थी. अब वह literally आ गई है Ukraine में जो Russia के दरवाज़े पर. और वह इसी वजह से हो रही है because system जो systemic change है उसकी वजह से? Systemic change होता है वह आपका long term credit cycle reserve currency की जो debasement हो रही है जितनी aggression से जो हमारी जो inflation है वह actually आ रही है बाकी दुनिया की. अगर आप US में जाएं, Canada में जाएं, आप दमई में भी हैं तो आपको It's in a confusion. It's a It's in logical यार. Yeah. मैं एक साल आप जाएं वहां पर तो जो चीज़ बीस dollar की है वह अस्सी dollar की और खाने में भी आ रही है. वह CPI मैं आपको पहले भी कहा था consumer price index उसमें वह food energy को count ही नहीं करते which has no logic to me as studied economics. ठीक है volatility आप कह रहे हैं लेकिन जब पचास फीसद एक बंदे की तनख्वाह जा रही है खाने पर energy पर तो इसका मतलब disposable income खत्म हो गई ना. Right. जब disposable खत्म हो गई तो फिर खरीदे का कौन? हां. तो फिर consumer demand का impact आता है. Right. तो वह मैं इस चीज़ को इसलिए highlight कर रहा हूं कि अब जब हम इस system में enter कर गए हैं जिसमें basically एक तो वह आपकी global wars हो रही हैं काफी aggressive simultaneously आपकी एक technology disruption आ रही है जो आपके पूरे systems को, processes को, jobs को change करने वाली है. तो उसमें फिर आप इसको जब आप देखते हैं जो entrepreneurship और लोग जो चीज़ें create कर रहे हैं suddenly एक तो यह survival mechanism है एक तरीके से कि basically I mean even अगर Pakistan को देखे तो कितने लोग बेरोज़गार हुए हैं या उनकी जो debasement या devaluation की वजह से पर्सिंह फावरू इतनी loss में lose हो गई कि they had to go and basically either do a second job or basically try to figure out. Side hustle पर ना break हुआ. Side hustle or just cut down and move you know to back to the village or back to the parents home. Right. तो there is a lot of changes that have happened and there is multiple segments of this economy लेकिन मैं जो and again coming back to that shock tank element what I was pleasantly surprised by is that जो मैंने देखा उसमें was कि लोगों में बहुत ज़्यादा resilience है. You would see people in their twenties and thirties कि लोगों ने jewelry के business बना लिए. लोगों ने domestic makeup के और consumer products के business बनाए और food के, apparel के and very quickly because leveraging technology उन्होंने marketing की हुई है majority marketing हुई थी Instagram, TikTok, Facebook से तो उनके budgets are not the same as billboards and they are achieving like fifteen-twenty crores of top lines with decent 2030% margin. तो that shows you the resilience of this younger generation that is switched on to the new changing dynamics. But investor side के ऊपर you know how are you getting interest from people कि यार अब हमारा पैसा भी आप इस वाले चीज़ों में invest करें because you know this seems like a good way to spend our money. यार I mean मुझे direct reach out सिर्फ किया है particular deals के लिए right? जो मेरा venture capital fund है वह तो institutional it's got international investor. वह tech है यह personal capital मैं लगा रहा यहां पर right? But what I think is gonna happen each season के साथ आप देखेंगे कि आपके जो पुराना जो इतना capital locked up है वह restaurants में और real estate base से लगा रहे because smoke में ideas बहुत कम होते हैं. हर बंदा copy करता है. Television channel खुला तो सौ खुल गए. Digital bank आया तो पांच इकट्ठे खुल गए right? हर बंदा वह everybody runs after the same thing. तो जो younger generation अब gen three पर अक्सर पहुंचे हुए लोग right? कि original दादा ने business शुरू किया था. It's not very unique lag effects हैं. हम we are about a ten year lag effect from India. Right. And girls से आप लगा लें कि Tuesday lot they used to be ahead of them but now they are way ahead right? पर वहां पर अक्सर आप जाए तो बड़ी families हैं उनके बच्चे जो they are putting money in startups directly. They are putting money in businesses directly. So वह एक culture evolve हो रहा है and I think us as venture capitalist entering उसकी वजह से angel investors का एक culture create हो गया है. अब इस show की वजह से potentially you will have more angel investors and probably even domestic funds that may get together and say कि यार let's consolidate इतने unique restaurant chains वन गई हैं. उनको एक umbrella में लाकर system centralize कर लेते हैं. That's how that's how countries eventually evolve right and this is by the way gone happened in every country is just कि I don't know for some reason Pakistan everybody thinks everyone running the race at the same pace. Comforty seven में शुरू हुए हैं. कुछ दो दो साल पुरानी companies हैं, countries हैं. हां और इसमें यह भी difference है कि there are certain countries that have a civilizational history and a civilizational knowledge base हम तो effectively एक पूरी नया identity बने हैं पचहत्तर साल में. अब यह देखिए ना partition के बाद जो पूरा brand था नहीं मुझे समझ नहीं रहा Pakistan की understanding नहीं हो रही. We are just figuring out it's a normal part of any country's are living through it I can understand it's painful but if you have a long view. Yeah. And this is what I keep saying to my founders as well कि यार जितना आप लंबा सोचेंगे Right? जब आप business पर जाते हैं and you in business as well. You are not usually worried about the two three month. Yeah. आप सोचोगे यार साल, दो साल, तीन साल and the bigger business when you become तो आपके लिए decade वन जाता है, दो decade, तीन decade. Jeff Bezos has a Amazon का जो founder है उसकी एक old to long term thinking है. Right. And he is basically building this huge kind of facility for it कि if you think beyond your lifetime hundred years ten thousand years so what can you accomplish? So division I mean you're just trying to focus on कि future में कहां चीज़ें जाएंगी and even if you're 1% right you're probably a thousand times more right than the person who is thinking about daily, weekly, monthly. Yeah yeah yeah. So I think वह if हमारा as a calm vision का मसला है because whether you look at solutions हर solution जो होती है वह experience ही वाली होती है बस यह स्वार्थ fix कर दो आगे kick the can down the road कि अगला अगला setup देख लेगा इसको. Right? And everyone try to get a quick fix and a win without any long term thought कि यार मैं अगर यह करूंगा तो उसकी downstream applications क्या होंगी? Makes sense. You mentioned कि हम India से दस साल आगे हैं and काफी दबाना पीछे

पीछे sorry. आगे होते हैं तो फिर. दुनिया बार को होती है. काफी दबाना हम जब discuss कर रहे होते तो India के example बहुत ज़्यादा आती है and recently when we look at India तो the western media is also pumping it up a lot. आपको constantly यह बताया जाता है कि यार China is scrambling and India is next growth center. But अगर मैं दोनों में comparison लेकर आऊं अगर आप nineties में जाएं तो India और China बड़े similar थे in terms of their numbers GDP per capita and so on. China on the other hand has grown much more rapidly and India जो है उसे अगर उसके context में relative to that has lacked. Of course. But जो ज़्यादा interesting मुझे comparison लगता है वह यह लगता है कि China has grown much more equitably. Right and India on the other hand उसके अंदर आपके पास you got like it's sort of dystopian कभी कभार जब मैं देखता हूं कि यार India के अंदर बहुत wide गुर्बत है और काफी हद तक Pakistan जैसे हालात भी होते हैं And so जब Pakistan की बात हो रही होती है उसके अंदर एक बड़ा positive outlook आ रहा होता है तो एक है वह numbers की bankers और accountants की दुनिया और एक है productivity की दुनिया. Right? So जब आप Pakistan को देखते हैं do you think कि क्योंकि जब आपकी जो आपका thesis अगर मैं उसको भी सुनता हूं तो you know manufacturing में हम पीछे रह गए हैं बहुत सारी चीज़ों में पीछे रह गए हैं. हम digital में, AI की दुनिया में so effectively हम यह कह रहे कि यार top of the food chain के अंदर जो educated जो already race में आगे निकल गया है उसका बहुत ज़्यादा good scene होने वाला है और जो दरमियान में रह गया ना वह अब loose करेगा similar to India. Is there no option for us? Yeah I think to be a bit more equitable and grow overall. देखिए वह वह अब systems की और उसमें कुछ cultural elements भी आ जाते हैं.

मैंने मुझे याद आई थी मैं यह MTV और time out वालों से बात कर रहा था for Pakistan licensing. उनका बंदा जब Pakistan आए he done the license for MTV India and time out Mumbai and time out India. तो he basically goes to me कि यार यह Pakistan तो बहुत ज़्यादा it's a much more evolved place and यहां पर I don't see the poverty at the same level as in India so so I said कि what's the reason? He said कि I think यहां पर people have a different faith system where they believe कि there's you know they believe in something alternative but everybody is willing to help hand out आपकी यह you know help बहुत लोग करते हैं दूसरों की. Right. India में because the reincarnation system many times he this was his statement not mine. कि basically people sometimes don't feel like you have to help people because this might be the punishment for previous life. I don't think this across the board in India but एक वह cultural nuance आता है. China में again वह communist system है वहां पर पूरी revolution हुई थी. उसके बाद equitable society China के लिए is no longer I mean वहां पर prince things हैं तो वह structure change हो गया तो वहां पर भी exactly यही चीज़ है बस information नहीं आती बाहर. Indians हम देसी सारे जो देसी हैं हम हर चीज़ grand करते हैं. Right. तो जब शादी हो रही है तो सबको दिखाना है उन्होंने

like बहुत ज़्यादा बड़ी है और वो overall ज़्यादा distribution हुई है. Right? अमीर आदमी अमीर हुआ है I agree. तो मुझे सिर्फ जो concern होता ना वो मुझे यह होता है कि जो मैं Pakistan ने पिछले दो साल बनाया हुआ covering startups और मुझे start up की अच्छी बात है कि यह भी लगी कि उसने वह high growth वाला startup वाला element side पर किया उसने actually core.

I mean I saw completely different deal flow. Yeah. अगर मैं regular देख रहा हूं तो that's why I was surprised. Yeah.

जो startup startup वाला जो flow Pakistan ने मैंने देखा उसमें वह यह था कि it was purely basing their assumption on the fact that एक बहुत बड़ी middle class create होगी उसको हम monetize करेंगे तो हमारी valuation इतनी swell up हो जाएगी जो कि to be very honest मुझे होता हुआ नज़र नहीं आ रहा in any way आप जितना भी आप होगे आप हमको users count कर लेना. देखिए economy आपकी बहुत बड़ी है. We have a trillion dollar economy

one third documented है. वह आप यार just go to the restaurants तवाही फिर गई थी झांगीर बार्टी से रहकर हर restaurant जो है packs था. मुझे तो कोई खाली नहीं मिला कभी right और आप कहीं पर भी चलने है. I mean आपके tax payers देख लें यार कितने 7,000,000 registered हैं, तीन million tax paying tax payers हैं और 1.5 actually nil file करते हैं और 1,500,000 actually कुछ pay करते हैं. तो out of 250,000,000 people तो clearly यहां पर पैसा काफी है. I don't think उस level की गुर्बत है अगर आप obviously इसको financialized world में करेंगे जो system जो मैं कह रहा हूं जो 1972 से twenty twenty में था. I don't agree with that measure. I mean I don't see Colgate और McDonald's complaining कि बंदा black economy साहे और मैं इस revenue को नहीं count करूंगा. Mean you can't. तो just because it doesn't touch the banking system वह एक हमने measures बना लिए दुनिया I mean is not the last fifty years की दुनिया या fifty five years की. आप हज़ार साल जाकर देख लिए different measuring mechanisms होती है so but as a potential मुझे तो Pakistan की website इससे नज़र आती है because मैंने you just have to look around you right? दो हज़ार छह China, दो हज़ार सोलह India क्या उन्होंने किया? जैसे ही technology इतनी का footprint आ गया as in usage, consumer, हर चीज़ digital footprint everyone now in Pakistan at least 50 to 60% population एक digital footprint leave कर रही है. वह क्या है? वह documentation ही है ना? Right. इनके data is a form of documentation. तो अब आपकी इतनी ज़्यादा जब एक level पर आपकी smartphone adoption हो जाएगी और digital payment setup हो जाएगी तो जैसे ही यह cash को system से pull करेंगे तो वह तो India जो है वह उठकर fifth largest economy में आ गया. Right. तो what is the developed market partnering with them for? हम we are living at a time जहां पर हमें सिखाया ही गया था कि human population is a drag on the economy. Right? But let's go on the digital framework. अब आप उसको convert कर दें 250,000,000 users में. Right? India is 1,500,000,000 users. तो it actually has turned into an asset. When you move things from a digital realm and economic activity at the end of the economic activity is nothing more than kinetic energy and movement of people. Right? हरकत में बरकत है. Right. वह उसी से आती है ना? आप movement करते हैं तो economic activity हो रही है. तो उसके basis पर अगर आप developed markets में देखें तो उनकी reverse problem है. वहां पर demographic जो है वह contract कर रहा है population का. And so there's an asset here and a lot of the underlying economies are undocumented. वह पूरे digital framework में आकर document होगी gradually and I think it's actually being done with a push from the developed markets because they bet on the global markets. तो अगर आप regulation को देख लें OECD common reporting standards, FATEF and even if you look at lot of the push to digitize from the World Bank and IMF उन्हीं से push आ रही है ना सारी. तो वह इसलिए आ रही है because जब भी हम document होंगे तो sir दुनिया की GDP grow होगी तो अगर हम तीन सौ पचास billion से let's say over the next ten years जैसे जैसे digitize हो जाता है हम trillion bit पहुंच जाते हैं which is very plausible तो that adds to the global GDP growth not just from productivity कि जी मैं units बना रहा हूं. देखिए जो manufacturing वाला game है ना to play the try to come up with the strategy from that world I am not saying it completely there is a hybrid world but it's like saying कि जी मुझे telephone की landline सी उस वक्त जो opportunity थी कि मैं telephone के sets बनाऊं वह वाले rotary phone वाले मैं उसको अब बनाने की कुछ कर रहा हूं जब market ही change हो गई है. तो the market now is a technology market and you have to harness your younger population जिसमें education की frankly कोई implication मुझे नहीं नज़र आती because IQ जो है it's not correlated to go by the education system जो हमने industrially अच्छे लिए बनाया था जहां पर frankly मुझे लगता है कि लोगों को breakdown करने के लिए बैठाया गया था. It's not normal कि आप बच्चे को आठ बजे से तीन बजे तक बैठा के एक classroom में used to करवा रहे हैं, compartmentalize करवा के. And innovation does not require that necessarily, right? And in fact some of the people that were B grade students or C grade students in school turn out to be the better entrepreneurs because they are actually more creative and able to think outside the box. Outside the box is that classroom box. Right. In my opinion. So अब वह education मेरे ख्याल से ऐसा ऐसा irrelevant होती जा रही है. मुझे आप बता दें कि मैंने calculus पढ़ी थी college में. I don't think I have ever used that calculus. मैंने भाई उसमें time पर इतना use आया किया था. Right? So there is certain things we should question कि why we are doing certain things and I don't think most of this education framework is applicable because let's unpack this right and eventually these things will come to Pakistan as well. I mean if you look at Huawei's factory most of its automated. उधर एक दो बंदे खड़े हुए QA देख रहे हैं computers पर but it's robotic arms that are doing it right? As artificial intelligence gets more and more powerful to put it in context beginning of 2024 में the highest IQ the IQ of the open eyes was roughly around जो इनका ChatGPT agent है roughly around one fifty five. Under Moore's law जो हर अठारह महीने में develop double होती है यह by the end of 2025 यह point जाएगी तीन सौ दस पर. Einstein and people at his caliber some of the smartest people उनकी IQ थी one sixty तो already यह उससे double हो जाएगी. उससे अठारह महीने के बाद उससे double हो जाएगी. उसके अठारह में by by 2030 you're looking at above a thousand IQ and I think you might even go faster with GPUs और जो speed से लोग pump कर रहे हैं to create that brain in in terms in computing platforms जो आपके LLMs वन रहे हैं नीचे और Lama और Gemini, Google का जो है Lama उसका Facebook का open AI is basically combination of Microsoft and now Apple की integration हो रही है वहां पर. तो यह एक convergence यहां पर आ रही है and China अपने कर रहे हैं वह more secretive उसमें हो रहा है. तो in my opinion any logic based jobs? Let's take you know I am graduating from college and I want to go work in accounting firm. Good luck because I don't think some of the AI software is coming are gonna get rid of this nineteen eighties level accounting software and methods right because you can do it in real time and let's say आप lawyers को ले लें. You'll have enough कि you don't need that many lawyers. You might have the good top lawyers like Heather Mota or like आपके जो Erdingham and these you need those law firms and those key lawyers but a lot of the paralegals and junior lawyers may not exist because the efficiencies there. वो essentially knowledge base से ज़्यादा experiential and network effect ज़्यादा होगा बजाज के एक random बच्चा नया enter हुआ है उसकी knowledge बहुत अच्छी है but knowledge तो ChatGPT भी दे रहा है. So हमें अब देखना है कि इसको हम किस तरह harness करें and I am not the one that is always looking to the government because जो private sector होता वह हमेशा thrive करता है. I believe in small government जितनी हम government का size reduce करेंगे खर्चा भी कम होगा हमारा on top of that let the market be आप simply regulate करें up to a minimal level और बाकी policies को आसान करते हैं look at what The UAE is done, look at what Saudi is doing right And I mean आप उनसे lesson लेकर apply कर दें यहां पर तो I think यह fundamental shift आ रही है let people innovate, let people learn. Data को आप बल्कि मुफ्त का कर दे रहा था उस पर tax लगाना. अगर आपने करना है तो make facilities available where people have access to data via smartphones or through computers. I would in fact encourage tablets and let them learn and innovate on their own because once you start getting these additional agents online जिसमें आपका communication becomes there's no barrier right? If I if I if I have a high IQ and let's say I'm living somewhere in a remote part of Pakistan. I have never had any formal schooling. मुझे अपनी native regional ज़बान बोलनी आती है लेकिन मैंने सीख लिया how to use one of these agents because you have text to speech or voice to text right and now voice to voice as in translation. That changes the paradigm. Is humanity has never experienced something of this level. So somebody sitting in some rural part of Pakistan can collaborate with someone sitting in some rural part of Latin America and easily communicate and find that both of them are facing similar problems and how they can find a solution and so these are things we are not thinking of. हम again game उस paradigm का खेल रहे हैं जो paradigm industrial age तो खत्म हो गई है. अब हम पहुंच गए in the exponential adoption technology phase. Right. And I think उसमें हम naturally abilities लोगों के सामने आएंगी. Makes sense. इसको अगर मैं थोड़ा सा ना

कह लें angle बदलता हूं. Right? जब हम Pakistan को देखते हैं ना तो Pakistan के अंदर there is a local economy और वजह उसकी यह है कि भाई अगर हमारे पास एक x amount of dollar है per तो एक y amount of cars ही होंगी per annum. Right. So it's it यह हमें लगाया हुआ है कि इतनी price और इतनी price but actually a certain amount of people will get cars every year that's it there's a quota right? And उसका जो bottleneck है it is the आप dollar कह लें उसको आप कल को bitcoin कह लें but the fact is you are not. It's bad governance actually. It's not nothing but not. But you are not do creating productivity or or like for a global economy right आप जाके कुछ. मैं governance से से कह रहा हूं ना क्योंकि क्यों आपका manufacturing base है textile industry को आपने subsidy दी हुई थी तो वह जो subsidized

electricity थी वह उसके उनके घरों पर भी आ रही थी दस जगहों पर आ रही थी right जब उनको तीन percent पर loan दिया जाता था तो उसके घर और गाड़ियां that's where the property prices and prices sky rocketed. मैं एक industry को target नहीं कर रहा I mean हर industry में आप देख लेते तो actually it's just subsidized तो मैं इसको bad governance से यह कह रहा हूं because एक तो होता है evolve वह कितने level पर आ जाएं जहां पर basically influence जो है वह उस फिर matter नहीं करती because you are competitive internationally and you have a lead. हमने शुरू से ही अपने आप को इस तरह set किया था कि हर बंदा rent seeking करके बाहर भी आकर flats बना रहे हैं. तो the point is कि that's not my problem. That's for the government to figure out and the look the I operate rather than complaining I look for opportunity. Even in bad times there's opportunity. I don't have a love loss if somebody is not doing their job. मेरा काम नहीं है I am not an activist. I can't come and fix it. मेरा काम है कि identify the talent in Pakistan and my objective is कि अगर मैं यहां से let's say between three four funds मैं इधर से चार पांच unicorns निकाल दूंगा चार पांच essay founders निकाल दूं जो दो तीन सौ million dollar की अपनी companies बेचने हैं. तो they will then have and and hopefully they have the ones I am backing have high ethics and they've done the business right from the start in the correct manner. तो then I think I can create five six Elon musks and Jeff Bezos that actually have sway on the government to change the policy. Do you think that the lack of dollars is a is a is a is a government problem?

A government system. The reason why मैं government और system में differentiate करूंगा क्योंकि government

जो आप कहते हैं ना तो उससे यह belief होता है कि यार. अच्छा government is the system. हां sir actors जो है ना वह change हो जाएंगे तो फिर government set कर दीजिए. नहीं नहीं नहीं I don't really care who is in power I mean I don't even in The US right? If you wanna watch the circus of कमला or Trump that's your choice right? The end end ultimately the central banks and the money is where the power is and it's always the people that are in the system long term right? These are just I call faces जहां पर sentiment साक हो जाता है. Channel people's anger. क्योंकि government policy can sway things but it can't change things. Systems

can be changed to create a long term different outcome. Exactly. Do you think के और systems अच्छा

काफी दफाल होंगे. By the way technology is a change of systems. Absolutely. That's what I saying कि यह opportunity हमें इसलिए मिल रही है unprecedented कि आपकी document economy जो सारी चीज़ें अब बातें कर रहे हैं when there is no cash which is आप India को देख लें it's almost there. Right? China is pretty much cashless. How do you hide anything? मुझे आप walk through कर देना कि मैं bribe किस तरह दूं किसी को ठीक है मैं उसको फिर वह expensive वह lamps लेकर दे रहा हूंगा. I guess people aren't realizing कि the the profound changes that are coming. The reason why मैं अगर context थोड़ा सा दे दूं ना, the reason why I talk about systems was that

when people are looking at individual actors ना तो it's very easy to get depressed or demotivated because you individuals को आप study कर सकते हैं उनकी statements को study कर सकते हैं उनके narrative को studies कर सकते और आप कहते कि यार जो मैं चाहता हूं वो तो यह represent नहीं कर रहा है. Right? अपने वो framework में जिसमें वो रहते हैं दायरे वो उसके खेल रहा है. But अगर आप दुनिया में देखें तो it wasn't actors that changed और evolved systems. काफी दफा I would actually argue majority of the times systems ने अपना रास्ता ढूंढा efficiency की और correction. Auto correction. Right? और उसमें मेरे actors जो हैं वह फिर adjust कर लेते कि यार अब यह नहीं reality है तो हम यह कर लेते मुझे personally यह लगता है कि we are now because there is a global systemic change. We are now at a point where there is a certain inevitability in Pakistan जिस पर सब adjust हो जाएंगे. वही पुराने लोग जो पुरानी बात कर रहे हैं. Again I will go back to what you are saying. देखिए

it's a resonance of basically your what you felt growing up and you are trying to emulate that same world back. Right. But जो आप experience कर रहे हैं your parents didn't go through it. Right. Most likely depending on your age, your grandparents didn't go through it. Your great grandparents went through it because we're living in a very similar time close to 1939. वहां पर जो आपकी decision making है, it cannot be the same. So for example, my father is 82. He grew up in a time when the rupee was pretty stable against the dollar relatively. तो उनको I mean you know maybe sixties or seventies में थोड़ा inflation आई थी but I mean उनकी they are relatively stable time. अब अगर मैं उनकी playbook से अपनी ज़िंदगी को जाकर करूं कि बस मैं plot लेकर बैठ जाऊं और मैं you know I work and I get a pension there is no chance of me surviving right? So as a nation, as individuals you have to play the hand that you are dealt. We are living at the tail end of a long term cycle. It's almost like the transition of the British empire to the American empire. उससे पहले क्या होता था? Before 1945 or '47 for Pakistan आपके क्या थे? Princely states थे? Large land holdings थी या monarchies थी तो वह सारी amalgamate होकर nation states में वन गई ना. अब मेरे अपने ख्याल से एक nation state की disruption है यह जो हो रही है since for since the sort of technology and gradually जो underlying systems है जो एक पुराने systems है यह अक्सर आप अपने ordinances पढ़ने थे British के ज़माने से तो pre partition. There is a new system coming. वह system वन रहे हैं Pakistan because I am privy to certain things at the regulator. People are underestimating कि how prepared we are for that system. Digital payment adoption is one of the fastest in the world. आपकी जो overall technology की की layer है वो काफी तेज़ है. वो I mean internet off हो गया, यह हो गया. These things are short term. I mean if you have a long term ten year outlook it's things are going to change and this is a huge opportunity. So again I'll go back to entrepreneurship. Yes अगर आपने job जाकर ढूंढनी है तो by nature you're a little complacent because nobody ever got rich doing a job unless you're corrupt. Right? So if you an honest normal person आप I mean यह पुराना सूल है यार आप basically money printing is so fast. Dollars debasing दस साल debasing as in devaluing at a rate of 10% a year. Right. Right? और हम अपने आप कौन से measure कर रहे हैं? हां. तो I mean there's तो people have to change their brain waves right and understand what cataclysmic times you are living in. I don't think I think each cycle यह जो three point five years का cycle है you will see more and more people disappear that don't rectify and more than likely it will not be the people at the bottom of the layer because वह तो बेचारा already feel कर रहे हैं ना तो उनके लिए तो struggle they have to figure out how to survive. It will actually be the people that are more complacent. तो वह typically वह it was in the last cycle it was the नवाबs and a lot of people जो gen four, gen five में बैठे हुए थे relax कर रहे थे और suddenly पूरा system change हो गया उनका. Makes sense.

थोड़ा सा मुझे यह बताएं. You you study cycles and investments. मैं सिर्फ़ दुबई में बैठा हुआ हूं. आप ही आते जाते रहते हैं. दुबई के अंदर और यहां पर लोग आजकल बड़े confused हैं because एक एक जैसा ना यहां पर आपके पांच आठ मर्ले के छोटे से घर होते हैं. बिल्कुल. तो मैंने सोचा यार यह तो बड़ा सस्ता होगा. अच्छा मैंने online जाकर उसकी price निकाली तो वह कोई तकरीबन पांच साढ़े पांच लाख दिरम per annum rent. That basically means कि यार वह पचास हज़ार दिरम जो है वह दे रहा है rent जो वहां पर रह रहा है. Doesn't make any sense to me. आप Dubai की तरह खाई निकालते हैं तो आपको जो अच्छा जो अच्छा banker है वह अस्सी नब्बे हज़ार दिरम ले रहा है. तो वह पचास आठ हज़ार तो नहीं लगा रहा so there is a mismatch between the real economy and this sort of pumped up asset prices. Because you have got so many experts coming in moving their assets there. हां so my question is and then फिर आप Pakistan में आते तो Pakistan ने बिल्कुल ही flat हुई भी है और वहां पर कोई वह नहीं कर रहा. Question मेरा effectively यह है कि do you think इस वक़्त जो आपकी जो prices सारी धारी pump हुई हुई है चाहे वो stock market all time high पर है चाहे वो वो सारा का सारा है वो इस वजह से है because Exactly. तो अगर आप productivity में उसको match नहीं कर रहे तो eventually कहीं ना कहीं mismatch आएगा and then that's the thing is going to unravel. इसीलिए मैं इसीलिए बार बार जाता हूं nineteen seventy one पर because जब पूरी assumption ही wrong हो तो then

लेकिन this was never taught in college. I studied finance, I studied economics everything starts at मुझे तो पता ही नहीं है gold भी होता है system because it's been very conveniently omitted from the system. Right. Right? तो मुझे 2,008 के जो GF gold financial crisis हुआ and I was in The US, New York at the time. तो I was like यार यह demigods मेरे दिमाग में जो बने हुए हैं, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, यह how did all of these guys come down to like almost a dollar in stock price almost collapse. जो bailout हुआ था from the government of the entire banking system which was the monetary system effectively. तो when you go back and start researching then you realize कि wait a minute हमारा the monetary system debt backed है which de facto the whole world is debt backed, right? अब debt packed your ten year treasury is basically has replaced which is a bond or debt instrument has replaced gold. तो उसमें in order for the system to sustain it has to be perpetually expanding debt and so when you expand debt by default you're printing money. It's tough to explain but that system has ended in 2021 and now in order to if you want to actually survive and actually thrive you have to busy change and let go of the thought process and understand the thought process now. So you are in the hyper debasement stage which is a final stage of this currency devaluation जो शुरू हो गई थी let's say $19.71 में, right? तो let's unpack Pakistan. 71 में हमारा जो rupee था वह था चार रुपए का to the dollar, right? और dollars जो let's say delay हुआ. क्या हुआ स्वत? Major you know whenever you have a currency reset and that was a very minor reset it was with less boards it was more of a orderly settlement. वहां पर mainly आपका आपका बांग्लादेश चला गया था आपकी currency overnight नौ पर आ गई है. Similarly bitcoin which is digital gold जो मेरे ख्याल से the western alliance is probably behind it to suck the sentiment of gold was released right after the global financial crisis in 2009 through an algorithm suppose he is सुशी नाकुमोडो or maybe John Nash I don't know. Right. But basically उसको आप देख लें तो वह today वह सब था एक penny का. Today last time I was here it was like I think I was saying it's like 56 I think $30.40 का पड़ा हुआ था. यह सब था एक लाख dollar का पड़ा हुआ है. तो that means कि a $100,000 to buy 1 bitcoin so let's do the math. हम रो रहे हैं कि जी हम rupee dollar के खिलाफ devalue हो गया है right? तो $2.75 rupees buys you $1 right? But a $100,000 buys you 1 bitcoin or $2,500 buys you an ounce of gold. So there's a debasement happening here and if if to me अगर एक चीज़ 200 say 2,500 में point you let's just take gold. तो just do the math of the debasement that's taking place and now we're in the final state so it's gonna go अब यहां से जो speed से double होगा हर चीज़ तो you cannot survive unless you hedge against this debasement and obviously nobody is gonna tell you that because information symmetric नहीं होती. जिनको समझ आ जाती है वह पहले move कर जाते हैं. Usually it's a more educated and affluent lot because they are already handling money to some extent and so वह trickle down होकर आती है तो वह अपने आप को hedge कर लेते हैं and then the last person that realizes this ends up basically being the biggest loser right? And so my part part of the reason जो मैं यह podcast कर रहा हूं कि I don't want to talk about things that everybody else is talking about because frankly those things don't even apply anymore most of those right? If you look to the future and what the opportunities that exist one is you have to understand how to defend yourself. If you don't just get up and do a job because just because आपकी you know that's what your parents are doing. Figure out ok if I'm doing a job am I saving enough? Am I hedging myself enough? Because this is a very very different time we're living in and debasement should be your primary concern. And if you're in a job where it's not paying you enough in terms of debasement, then you have to very quickly change your trajectory and figure out something and everybody has a talent. I mean I don't think in the history of the world इतना ज़्यादा आपको potential लोगों को मिली हुई है कि आप यार इस phone को पकड़े within a span of a month you can if you have the dedication you can master any subject. You want to become a sushi chef just watch enough videos go by a couple fish attempt a few times take a class go down that मैं आपको वैसे ही hypothetical कर रहा हूं. You can learn pretty much anything in this state of age. लोग people are applying not using the power of this technology in fact abusing it social media पर TikTok को देखने वाली थी just I am guilty of that too by the way. Right. Maybe कम से कम मैं आधा घंटा दिजाया करता हूं but meaning कि that's primarily what's happening right? Yeah. तो these are not normal times that's why I don't like talking about you know I mean I feel most economists are using the system which I know why they have to because there's a parallel system so I'm not talking about the people that are running the show. They have to obviously create a semblance of structure for us right? Right. मतलब बिल्कुल ही chaos होता है यहां पर. But this is for the younger generation. As you're coming out and figuring out what to do, I mean I would not advise you, I mean your cusp generation है, उनके पास यह भी opportunity है कि ठीक है मैं can I be a doctor, engineer which I don't think they'll have jobs in six to seven years? तो they're the ones that are the ones more in trouble. The short term इस AI disruption currency यह सारी interlinked है because पिछली cycle मैंने आपको बताया था dollar rise कर रहा था. I mean when dollar became तो उस वक्त mechanization was a technology disruption, right? तो इस बार यह जो AI की जो final layer आ रही है along with blockchain and digital payments combined that's just nothing more than locking data and AI will use it from the blockchain to thrive. So उसमें you have to figure out कि मैं इसको leverage करके किस तरीके से आगे निकल जाऊं? इसके तीन pieces हैं. एक यह है कि जो cusp generation है जो system में at a different age है. Like for example like my kids or your kids they're Gen Alpha. यह digital natives है they will be innovating in this world लेकिन मेरे जैसे लोग हैं या आपके जैसे लोग हैं जो even those kids that are in college right now इनके लिए there is a lot of tough time ahead. You have to retool, structural unemployment is ahead of you, ahead for you and you have to figure out your skill set very quickly. चलिए इसके बारे में थोड़ी सी बात करते हैं because इसके ऊपर काफी लोगों का सवाल आता है.

एक तो वह बंदा है ना जिसको इस वक़्त समझ ही नहीं आ रही sort of chaos. Instability creates opportunity as well. Yeah. So lets look at the growth. Lets look at the opportunity right and so a lot of people who actually are able to see it and understand it उनका सवार हो जी मेरी videos के नीचे ना बाहर ही आता है कि मतलब मेरी AI की दुनिया में यह कहना बड़ा आसान है कि you know get yourself acquainted with AI. But there is a very small like a very very small subset of people who will actually be working at the top of the food chain building the AI products that a lot of people will be using. अरे वो बड़े थोड़े से लोग हैं जो कि बहुत सारे लोगों के लिए बना रहे होंगे. For a vast majority of people Pakistan में चार से पांच million बंदा workforce पर आ रहे हैं हर साल. वो बंदा अपने आप को किस तरह employ कर रहा है? वो क्या farms में जाकर काम कर रहा है? But वह metric से वह graduate यह हुआ था कि वह fail हो गया था और उसे अंग्रेज़ी का कोई seed ही नहीं था. तो मैंने उसको बोला मैंने कहा यार आपके गली मोहल्ले में अगर लोग Amazon पर कर रहे हैं but I don't think based on the personality you would be a very good candidate for Amazon वह वैसी market pump हो चुकी हुई है. तो उसने कहा कि फिर मैं और क्या करूं? मैंने कहा वह आपके साथ मालिया काम करता कहते जी बिल्कुल करता है. तो मैंने कहा कि यार why don't you आप इसको बोलो कि यह phone पर लगाएंगे पर लगाएंगे phone पर लगा हुआ है. तो social media के ऊपर एक new age gardening का कर रहे ना यहां पूरी गली है. बिल्कुल. Sad कोई ही भी है, right? मुझ जैसा like my mother would have contacts. I don't know how to get a gardener. Right? And so many people are moving in. So my point is कि online जाकर आप बहुत सारी micro services बना सकते जिसमें आप AI की productivity jump को utilize करके rather than being an accountant in a company figure out how you can provide accounting services to 10 companies at a fragment of the price but आखिर में आप ज़्यादा पैसे बना रहे होंगे. Exactly. But within that context like how do you see कि आप उस पांच million को किस तरह काम पर लगाओगे?

देखिए देखिए there is no nobody is really looking out for anyone right? Is a false illusion कि government is they are looking out for you. It's a system. Yeah. Of many people जिसमें you are just a cog. Right. In the middle right? So when you get rid of that delusion I call it not even the illusion delusion. Then you realize कि भाई मैंने as a child your parents are above you. They're like अम्याभूव caught my back. Yeah yeah yeah. When you turn into an adult and come to the real world and then you realize कि यार इस बार कोई problem है I can't as your parents age I can't run back to them. Yeah. तो then you become a true adult. Yeah. So similarly as unfortunately जो नए generation है and again I exclude Gen Alpha. Gen Alpha is the one kids that are still below the age of like 13 today. Right. And the younger you are the better off you are because their digital areas उनके लिए उनके wiring ही differently. By the time they are growing up तो यह stability आ जाती होगी. Stability आ जाती है और उनकी wiring ऐसी है क्योंकि noodle connectivity is so rapid in the digital run कि they can see things for invent things for their use. Right. यह जो कसफली generation है कि जो इस दुनिया में भी है लेकिन अब वह disrupt हो रही इनके regular काम जो है and especially people that have now entered college or graduate from college and people like us we have to adapt. देखिए जब ये wars होती हैं या technology shifts आती हैं and I call mechanization a technology shift right even the wheel was a technology when it was first invented. Right. So these they're ruthless. They don't nobody cares. People millions of people have died in wars right? So it's not like someone's gonna come and save you. So we have to save ourselves as individuals and again you can look at the glass half empty or you can take this gift. It's negative and it's positive. A gift has been given to you कि जो पूरी knowledge repository थी जो different libraries में पढ़ी हुई थी वह digitize होकर आपको online available है. अगर आप reading नहीं कर सकते तो podcasts हैं. Right? We are doing one right now. I actually don't even watch Netflix anymore. I listen to podcast, Tom Bilu you name it on 50 topics health, fitness, this, that you name it. I don't think इस level की knowledge आज से पहले किसी के पास थी. तो the quicker and I think जो आपके audience हैं जो already आके podcast को देख रहे हैं they are probably in the point o 1% and these people will likely survive but the other people that are not realizing the fundamental shift I think you can't really do anything right? I I can't pay your bills, you can't pay my bills. Ultimately we have to survive on our own. और वही है ना कि there is lot of people who are now screaming at the government कि government jobs provide कि government job provide किया. Government अक्सर लोग खुद जो है बेचारे हो job उनकी खत्म हो जाएगी अगर आप e government को देखते हैं वह तो जिसने PIA जो है I mean airline बैठ गई है but employees की वजह से कोई खरीदा उनको layoff नहीं कर सकते. I mean government itself has no solution right and it's not I mean they can't have the solution because यह कोई mess आधे घंटे में नहीं create हुआ ना this is like seventy five plus years of a mess तो let's leverage technology जिस जिसके पास access है ठीक है जिनके पास आएगा वह एक adoption होती है. I would say कि everyone should just focus specifically on individual self improvement which means कि आपने unique develop a skill set that is not you know gonna be disrupted by AI. तो अब इसकी दो तीन पहले phases हैं. एक short term phase है. उस short term phase में आपके AI agents आऐंगे. So let me let me I guess explain AI to some extent कि what it is right? So आप analogy होगी operating systems की तरह जिसमें आपका iOS smartphone operating system so iOS, Android का जो था वह आया sorry Apple का iOS आया और Google का Android आया. जो हम सब अपने phones में बना दियादा use कर रहे हैं. फिर उसके ऊपर बनी applications, right? तो now let's zoom back to what's happening today. तो the big tech which is a magnificent seven in The US, Meta, your X जो आपकी इसकी Elon की है, Amazon everybody is trying to create big tech वहां पर और Chinese अपनी कर रही हैं. Right? तो वह क्या करें? They are building large language models, right? LLMs. उसको आप analogy दे दें as operating systems in the smartphone disruption era. वह जो LLMs हैं वह आप उसके लिए आम बंदा नहीं कर सकता because उसमें billions and billions of dollars खर्च करने होते हैं to buy the GPUs and basically the brain and then the programmers and the whole shebang, right? So let's lead that to them and I don't think even countries can compete. Know if you're looking at The Gulf States they're backing either Chinese or this one big tech or the other. And they're building data centers because वहां पर they'll need data storage, but they know the LLM game sets with the big tech. And all big tech is at this point fighting for the existential survival because they understand कि जिसकी जिसका LLM and AI attains AGI, right? That artificial general intelligence that is like splitting the atom in the previous cycle like who got the nuclear bomb basically won the race right? तो they all fixated there and I mean for us to be running around to the IMF talking about a billion $2,000,000,000 loan it's actually kind of stupid at this time जब वह $150,000,000,000 खुश खुश हो रही है एक GPU farm पर तो I mean think what's happening right? And like that's why am saying let's think outside the box a little bit. Ok now so let's say उसके ऊपर बनने फिर agents या applications. अब let's say you build a legal tech platform on it that basically does all your motions जितने भी आपके case laws हैं वो सारे split second में आपके spit out हो गए, right? तो you can use ChatGPT and build it on top and you can accelerate and start disrupting making money from it, right? You can do the same thing with accounting software. अब दुनिया में हर जगह पर standards अलग होते हैं, laws अलग होते हैं तो that's how you start disrupting. So एक पूरा यह facet है that you can leverage and so in the short term there'll be people that make a ton of money but not everyone's gonna have the skill set of developing these agents that end up basically making it just like what the application on it one was called Uber another one was called Airbnb they're all startups retrieve with pitch decks and no money and then ended up becoming big right so some of those people some of them may sell their companies to $5,000,000 के एक बड़ी big tech now के एक और agent company out of The US that's aggregating accounting software all over the world उन्होंने आकर आपकी Pakistan की accounting software खरीद दी आपकी Pakistan की दौ वाली agent खरीद लिया right so that's that's one element Now let's come to conceptually understanding AI right? Sorry यह आपकी conceptual understanding हो गई इसमें right? अब let's come to people that don't can't develop apps regular people. If you're an executive you better learn how to use different AI tools I don't care if you are searching Google all night you are going on part मैंने I mean what did I do? मैं कोई AI का expert तो नहीं था ना I mean you have to say this is a new suddenly I mean I understood AI at a conceptually but when ChatGPT was thrown out there I was like what just happened here? I am like अब मेरे timeline में यह दो हज़ार सत्ताईस अट्ठाईस में शुरू होता है right? तो दो हज़ार तेईस में for it to come मैं तो हिल गया था right? Like so then for the last two years I had to go and educate myself. The way I always operate is I can't do it unless I understand the whole structure. तो I already understood the tech stack layers until this point because that's why I am investing. I have to understand कि where AI comes in and so I had to start from these LLMs, who the key companies are, map those out then उसके बाद understand कि what the agents are and obviously I am studying this because my next one I am looking to back these type of startups right because you don't back the same thing opportunities change. Similarly you have to go and educate yourself. अब उसमें you can find tools so let's say if you're an executive there's 10 ways to sort your mail, there's 10 ways to have digital assistance that can actually solve your work problems very quickly. I mean I don't know anyone today that's actually smart who's not using ChatGPT to churn out even a simple response to some complicated email and you're like tweaking it and you it's like almost like you have to learn how to nudge it right? To get a response close sometimes even writing in there के make it sound more like a south Asian response right? Yeah. And जब मैं उधर teach कर रहा the AI simultaneously learning from me Right? So there's a it's a two way exchange and then eventually you're enhancing your productivity that just means we're gonna make more money in the long term. But there's a short term element of AI that's आप कह लें कि people that leverage AI regardless of which discipline they are in including yours for example right? Is a massive disruption happening in video content and how quickly you can edit and churn stuff out. So that's one element. People that don't use it they will just be left behind. Just like people decided of computers I think I'm gonna use करना. Became obsolete eventually, right? So then the next element comes in is that people that actually will be after this phase that is when AIG gets smarter than the executive which again under Moore's law is going to keep on going faster and faster. So even just by getting ahead in the short term does not guarantee that you will survive or have a business or job or relevance unless you continue to innovate and learn and see if you can keep you know how you can stay ahead of the curve. So जब वह stage आएगी which I think it will start to come in 2030 onwards that's going to be the really really disruptive phase and उसमें you're gonna see a lot of chaos, conflict, strife because it's a fundamental change to ourselves. To me to me personally this is a transformative point for humanity because we've for the first time we're creating an intelligence that is going to be smarter than us right and once you and robotics comes away later like it's not something about they over hyping and stuff I mean no problem like androids walking around and stuff but eventually all this kind of ties in to the equation right? Then human beings become somewhat irrelevant and so then you are looking at potential outcomes. They been talking about universal basic income तो उसमें क्या है आपको communist style छोटे डब्बे में बैठा दिया. आप बैठे हो उसमें monthly stipend मिल रहा है. You're happy because Netflix चल रही है. आपको basic beyond maybe it's artificial bad food for you like beyond meats का खाना और artificially grown vegetables but baseline substance right? That that dystopian world I don't like to think about too much but I lean on the negative side of AI. It will give more control to a more centralized authority and there'll be less relevance of a lot of human beings. Right? And so you may see like a communist setup at a global level in each country because there's no other way otherwise there'll be lots of disorder and strife. As you've seen in developed markets even recently कि जब आपकी economy flux में जाती है, jobs जाती है, people don't know how to survive. तो then there's more conflict. तो that phase in 2030 we have to all plan for. I think there is only six five to six years left for all of us to figure this out and less for our kids. जो अगर आपने वो वाली बात की ना

the way that I see it particularly AI मुझे थोड़ा सा.com bubble वाला भी वो आता है कि थोड़ा सा timeline इस वक्त लोग ज़्यादा excited भी होंगे. नहीं वह euphoria वाली अब बात करें. हां मतलब और मैं इस तरह से इसको back करूंगा कि अगर आप जाकर इनकी technical वह करें ना तो काफी a lot of people are now beginning to say कि यार जो जो अगर इसी tech stack के साथ हम इसको scale करेंगे ना तो scale reach हो चुका है और उसको आप मज़ीद बढ़ा रहे हैं तो वह मज़ीद smart नहीं हो रहा. AI will need to radically reimagine how it achieve. LLM maybe AGI नहीं लेकर आएगी but eventually हम उधर पहुंच जाएंगे. Exactly. So sort of similar to जो एक तो euphoria है ना markets वाला euphoria है जो कि आपको.com bubble में नज़र आया था but even जो technologist थे tech bros थे उनका यह सब दुनिया पूरी बदल जाएगी और आप जो है ना ऐसे हो सब कुछ हो जाएगा कि online हो जाएगा and you know things will change things did change. Just change on a much more on a on a much more sustainable timeline. Right?

मुझे जो मेरे जो question mark है ना Sorry the symmetry I guess I agree with you on symmetry. I think it's gonna impact developed markets a lot quicker than it's going to impact markets like Pakistan just because we're catching up because यहां पर भी lag है ना. So I mean when I talk about it I'm talking from that lens right? Yeah. So you're right in a lag effect but the urgency to me. But eventuality

उसकी है. Mean don't

think this is gonna take more than I don't think this is a twenty year adoption. Right. I think this is a six to ten year adoption if you in the developed world

you probably have six years. जो मेरे लिए interesting इसमें होता ना वह यह होता है कि जब हम systems की changes की बात कर रहे हैं तो हम core पर requirement की बात कर रहे हैं, right? और requirement आपकी जो थी ना वह पिछले पचास साल की जिसकी बात आप financial system कह ले जितना से भी कह ले वह requirement यह थी कि यार I if I am sitting in The US and I want to consume a lot I want कि मैं China में factories बनाऊं जो कि one tenth of the price में वह चीज़ बना देंगी और मेरी currency है तो मैं उसको देता रहूंगा वह समझेगा वह अमीर हो रहा है लेकिन मैं उससे वही पैसा वापस ले लेता हूं you know treasuries के promise करके. So मुझे infinite cycle के ऊपर as a consumer I can consume a whole lot more. अच्छा we're now at तो it's a rising power. But वह मैं वही कह रहा कि अगर आप उसको study करें कि geopolitical भी तो वह दो हज़ार आठ के उसमें देखते कि यार यह तो Ponzi है ना US dollar. हम तो सारा का सारा है. वह हर currency पौनी है. Excess capital है उस capital को हम जाते थे जाकर US के अंदर Right? Where we all trade with each other and we all get rich. Which was by the way which is not true because we weren't getting rich. There's also comparative advantage.

Right? And and I thought there was always rigged. The other countries would use our alternate means to make sure कि the comparative advantage always stays with them. Absolutely. So I mean anyone that thought that the world was fair I think was again living in delusion.

Absolutely. So यहां पर अब मुझे जो difference जो मुझे जो एक तो channel ठीक है AI का लोगों के individuals के लिए किया but systemic change जो मुझे एक major नज़र आ रहा ना वह यह नज़र आ रहा है कि you do not need cheap human labor

to to to create productivity for you. Exactly. So that you can live a comfortable life. हां so अच्छा that that part I agree. Ok so maybe I didn't get to that part. So I think GDP growth rates are going to skyrocket everywhere because your productivity is about to skyrocket. Especially with countries that implement AI very quickly. I'll give you an example there's textile units now that are coming back to The US that are run entirely by automated army these aren't like robotics they're like robotics of arms and stuff not like androids like I don't know why people keep visualizing you have arms that can do the same job. Are just two machines with two people that have the same output of a factory in Bangladesh right? So there is going to be GDP growth rates but the problem I'm having is why would you need a human? I'll give you an example right? Let's say I'll give you an example of why even in Pakistan impacts. You're gonna see pretty amazing softwares come out. Agents that busy let's say solve accounting problems right? Ok if I am let's say I'm a CEO of a major company. I have 50 people in my accounting department. Initially I'll implement it. I'll probably like after six months of his working I'll lay off 10. साल बाद I'm like यार यह तो बीस और को lay off कर दो. ठीक है? After five years I'll probably be down to one or two people there that are just there to monitor but everything is being done. Process is going to digitize कर दिया. Right? This will play out in multiple disciplines. It's actually so difficult to predict because I never thought the creative side will get impacted, right? But the fact that now Hollywood is under pressure because basically Hollywood quality movie can be churned out within minutes. It's disruptive. So the reason I am highlighting the adoption nature of this is that one it's like applications right? So nobody ever thought कि you'd be seeing US content via Netflix or YouTube at a global scale right? I mean there used to be a lag effect at one time but when it came that disappeared within the span of years right? So इसके इसके अंदर इतनी चीज़ें top seatervy होंगी not everything obviously आपका खंसामा तो रोबाराट नहीं बच जाएगा ना तो there will be jobs there eventually autonomously driving vehicles come

even drivers get disrupted right? Like मैं वही देख रहा ना कि अगर मैं इस वक़्त हमारी Pakistan या बहुत सारी Pakistan जैसी countries की reliance है कि आपके बंदे capital बाहर जाते हैं human capital बाहर जाता है और वह जाकर जी driver ही करते हैं Dubai में या वह अगर मैं America में देखूं तो जी Joe Biden जो है जी वह illegal immigrants को लेकर आ रहा कितनी बुरी हरकत कर रहा और यार आपका सारा agriculture जो America का है वह आपके legal Mexican से ला रहा है. बस इनकी deflation हो रही है because robotics

are not going to take over anytime soon. Right. So that's but that's my question. It's actually disrupting the white collar worker more. Right now. Right now. मैं यह कह रहा हूं कि अगर आप इसको five seven years के timeline पर लेकर आए हैं अगर आप Elon Musk का first I am time लगा going on the white collar disruption. Think the white collar, वह मैं आपको कह रहा था गरीब आदमी जो है उसके लिए शायद advantage create हो जाए. जो white collar आपकी जो I mean most of the middle class, upper middle class and upper class of this country is an even your lower middle class is aspiring to get into white collar jobs. Right? Right. आपने MNC में job कर लिए क्यों नहीं? मेरे ख्याल से वहां पर सबसे ज़्यादा impact आएगा और specially मैं मैं again identify कर रहा हूं lawyers, accountants, doctors at the OPD level जो आपकी base layer होती है कि जो खांसी है तो अच्छा यह दवाई ले लें. हां जो जो सबसे ज़्यादा jobs होती हैं basically. वह जो सब base जिसको क्या कहते हैं यहां पर home job यदि जो base उसको US में OPD कहते हैं right? Right. तो and then like these jobs that everyone is aspiring to get into up you going to lumps, parents spending their entire life savings to get you into one of these jobs. I think वहां पर jobs खत्म होंगी तो यह लोग structurally unemployed होंगे जो आपके baseline layers हैं I think उनको तो advantage आ रहा है because suddenly जो आपकी वह जो education थी जिसमें English was a barrier और आपने एक school में जाना था you don't need any of that anymore. You can train yourself on this device. You can learn knowledge. I mean I mean do you really think it's effective कि एक कमरे में पचास बंदे बच्चे बैठे हुए हैं और एक teacher job board पर बैठ के उनको पढ़ा रही है. There's no student teacher ratios off. I mean there's a disruption coming at that layer as well. So to me it's an opportunity. Do I think this chaos in society? Absolutely with each one of these debasement cycles जो हर three point five years पर चल रहे हैं पूरी दुनिया में उसमें आपका more and more chaos आएगा because more and more people will lose their purchasing power and simultaneously you also having this technology disruption जिसमें companies तो जो अमीर owners of the company है वह तो happy है because उनकी productivity enhance हो गई है but employment goes away. My issue is with this bulk population what do you do? There is gonna be two types of scenarios here. I hope that is making sense to some extent. Yeah it is.

मुझे जो the way that I see it I think सबसे जो initial वह है वह आपने debasement वाली बात की सबसे initial यह है कि you are on a short term you are going to see the rich getting much richer. Of course. And majority of the people getting वह जो है ना वह struggle कर रहे होंगे और वो conventional solutions ढूंढने की कोशिश करते रहेंगे जो कि conventional solution उनके पास आऐंगे नहीं. Right? आपने कहा जो robot arm आ गया जो कि factory workers को निकाल रहा है effectively. Right?

Just you can actually literally pull up a video and pull it up for your audience. Go look over Huawei factory. हां it's crazy. It's crazy. It's like zero human hands and वह पूरी गाड़ियां बना रहे हैं. Even BYD and many of these other apps. Absolutely and so you basically take out the human cost. आपके autonomous

गाड़ियां आ गई. आपकी Middle East में बड़ा सारा बंदा बैठा है इस time के ऊपर. Message नहीं खरीदना है. Right? So consumer

ने कुछ ना कुछ करना अब उसमें I personally don't see universal basic income as a very low because humanity tailor ही ऐसी हुई भी है वो फ़ारिक नहीं बैठ सकती. So the the smarter thing for a lot of young people right now should be create the ability. मैं disagree करता हूँ यार हर बंदा government की job में बैठ के वो ghost employee वन जाता है तो इस मुल्क के लिए तो stock market भी अब तेसीर एक चार पाई, बंदा चार पाई पर सो रहा है नीचे right? तो I think Pakistan में तो बड़ा खुश होंगे universal basic income से. उन्होंने अपना पैसा कहीं लगाना है. Right? That's why I was saying कि so अगर आप unpack करें हमारी discussion को right? हां. I was saying कि using the industrial age education system to think you're going to get ahead you're being trained for jobs that won't exist. Right. उसमें आपकी conditioning होती है पूरी किस तरीके से आपकी सोच change हो रही है. Right? Outside the box thinking is not encouraged assembly line के ऊपर right? कि आपने एक cog में बस अपना काम करना है. You don't need to know कि गाड़ी पूरी की तरह बनती है. Right? वह, वह early training is obsolete. तो what I am saying is कि ठीक है अब एक first generation है आपने यह तो नहीं हो सकता ना कि school my kids also go to school but मैं उनको ज़्यादा इस device से I am showing them how to leverage ChatGPT with supervision how to even understand what what technology is and what the layers of technology are so that in their world they can and they're already on roadblocks उनको already समझ है तो they can go and create and innovate products for them. I can't go and innovate products at my age for a brain that's being wired at this age into a digital world because think of where their knowledge level will be sitting. Mean हमें तो middle में आकर iPad और iPhone आए थे ना about life and since then our knowledge level and productivity has enhanced by like 200%. यह तो birth sin के पास है. तो जो उनकी noodle connectivity है यह लोग जो यह create करेंगे I think it's wonderful but I think वह जो middle का period है दस साल का until then alpha comes of age वहां पर massive disruption है and chaos, structural changes of society. तो मैं उसकी बात कर रहा था कि जो जिन लोगों ने उस you can't avoid it. 8,500,000,000 people on the planet you cannot control but उसमें से you don't want to be amongst let's say 50% of population that is in trouble and not able to figure out कि कर क्या रहे हम and I sure they will be like plans that may may may put a global fund together we can withdraw a certain amount of capital on a monthly basis. We don't know how the structure changes right? But you want to be part of the people that see their disruptive change today which is not being taught in our schools. There's no discourse in Pakistan about it. हम डाला रायण में रहेगा हम data centers की बात करें अभी कि हमारा data यहां पर रह जाए मैं I laugh at that I'm like भाई इस phone से already वह जा चुका है back end पर तो आप आप house क्या कर रहे हो उसको? तो my point is कि we have to think a little bit outside the box if we want to survive this disruption as a nation. Makes sense. अगर आप nation की बात करें I want to understand there is a lot of

weirdness happening in geopolitics right? People again अगर मैं political economy की बात करूं you talk about economy a lot and talk about technological changes as well but political economy wise you know what's what's the Trump phenomena? What's the you know and that's happening all across like governments are Everywhere yeah. जीरूम आप देख लें he is another. Exactly. वह El Salvador का बंदा एक अलग अलग flow में चल रहा है Argentina वाला बिल्कुल अलग flow में चल रहा है. Europe के अंदर जो है वह governments fall कर रही हैं नए लोग आ रहे हैं and so Pakistan में ज़ाहिर a lot of people मैं बार बार यह अपनी videos से भी यह बात करता हूं कि you know we're always very inwards. So अगर हम outwards करते हैं तो बड़े conspiratorial तरीके से करते हैं कि बस जो एक framework सा बनाया हुआ है और उस framework के अंदर सबको fit करने की कोशिश करते हैं और वरना हम inwards देखते रहते कि खाने This is a post world war two mindset कि आपने there is Pepsi or Coke. Yeah. There is like you know there is only, it is a two frame which actually basically limits your thought process. Yeah. So actual के अंदर जो है दुनिया में कुछ changes आ रही है उसके रहे है follow up पर Pakistan में भी आ रही है दुनिया में stability आएगी Pakistan में भी आ जाएगी. Right? So what's your understanding of what's going on and where do you see all of this going? Yeah I mean that's

what I have been alluding to this whole time right? The technology shift is linked to the geopolitical shift right so we've graduated from the industrial empires to the digital empires I don't know why people aren't getting the memo because all you have to do is look at the s and p 500 or the magnificent seven big tech companies and look at their market cap and you'll understand they're the most dominant right and you'll see the richest people and they're the owners of those companies as in like the CEOs, founders of the companies so the point is the world has changed same thing as in China Europe never had a main platform so Europe that's why it's lost the game. You're seeing them deflate away right? And so it's really the American digital empire and the Chinese digital empire and then rest are just alliances. So let's unpack how the world is changing very quickly right? So as Europe is deflating, you're seeing the emergence of new middle powers. Let's say we put China and Russia in one block, and then we have other countries. So ideally, Pakistan should have been a middle power. We didn't play our cards well. So now what are the middle powers emerging? It's Turkey and The Gulf States जिसमें Saudi is emerging as the primary middle power. Right? So जो Europe का status था as they gradually diminish, these are the countries that are emerging and then they have to find an alliance either with China or with The US, right? तो उसमें भी आप different economy देखने हैं. You can आप उससे hints ले सकते हैं कौन किस तरफ़ है by seeing कि दो system जो वन गए हैं because यह underlying disruption तो payments की हो रही है ना currency disruption हो रही है और इस बार वह currency जो है digitize हो रही है internet से merge हो रही है. तो उसमें एक system वन गया है Bricks या Bricks pay का जो उनकी app launch हुई थी. Right around the time वह PDD की scan लेती ऊपर होगी कि most people didn't read about that and I was like that was the most important event. You're watching PDD memes on Instagram, right? So अच्छा let's come to the The US side. They're also working on their central bank digital currencies and digitization of वहां पर you can see कि for example UAE has joined the BRICS. India is part of BRICS but I think India is in a bigger comprehensive strategic partnership with The US after the Becker accord and the comprehensive military agreements. Saudi is right now on the sidelines. They're an observer in the bricks and they're also in deep discussion with The US. They need an a cover, a nuclear cover because their opponent Iran is pretty close to a bomb. So my what I suspect is that Pakistan's bailout is gonna come from the Saudis gradually each year in exchange for NATO type or it could be the entire Gulf Region which could basically be a NATO type pack. If they're attacked then we have to respond. It's like attacking one NATO country or whatever that alliance is called is like attacking any other country and then Pakistan's nuclear weapons make a stalemate there. So it creates peace because nobody's gonna allow them to have nuclear weapons in such a short span of time right? So and I think then we have to keep an eye on which ways the saudis go because as goes Saudi then so does Pakistan right? And so this is a major shift that people have to recognize that's happening in the world so you can't look at the old order and come to a conclusion and even understand geopolitics that's my job to understand कि China is why do I look at it right? Ok who's gonna buy these tech companies? Is it gonna be the Chinese big tech or is it gonna be the American big tech? So I have to look to both sides and then develop or help founders develop platforms to seek and exit निकालानी at some point. In my opinion it's gonna be a lot of regional acquisitions as well from the tech perspective and the tech footprint shows you which way the world is shifting right? And you can also see that जो हम एक तरीके से Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan के zone में आ गए हैं. Versus the South Asian. Asian. वह सारा उधर चला गया है. And then if let's say the word I use the word your nation state is changing. Right? So that doesn't mean your nation state disappears like within Pakistan there's provinces. So let's say in the मीनाप region there's different countries that become like provinces eventually over the next twenty years thirty years and यह gradually होगा. तो अब अगर मैं उसकी population देखूं तो collectively five half a billion people live in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan just means a bulk of the population is coming from Egypt and Pakistan. Need to become a power or a zone you need large land a large landmass, food security, energy security and human population. So let's assume that this turns into a region. Also becomes easier to manage at a global scale, right? And then eventually let's say there's one market policy which gradually is already happening through FATF, OECD, government reporting standards then eventually आपने एक marketplace बनाली, right? कुछ energy producers and कुछ energy consumers just like The US and large European Union एक zone emerge कर सकता है. Obviously this is speculative but a lot of signs are pointing here right? Right. And then you have a central lesion zone that's forming उसको आप SEO के guard में ले आएं. वह China अपना footprint expand कर रहा है इस region में. India जो है वह bricks में है. I don't think they're gonna be in bricks in the long term. I think that's really the American footprint along with दिया अकेले, part of the US empire and then यह वाला zone I think will probably be part of the US alliance and then obviously अगर उसकी एक currency हो जाती है तो वह that half a billion people today is roughly 8.6% of the world GDP. आज से दस साल बाद they're projected to be roughly around 15 to 16% of the दुनिया की GDP. तो अगर वह एक currency का block वन जाता है and just like The Gulf States are back to the dollar or let's say whatever other currency there is then that zone has some level of power and then Egypt and Pakistan act as the stronger military elements of that zone. Right? So that's one way to look at the potential changes happening in the world. अच्छा मुझे यह बताएं कि इस वक्त ना Pakistan में जो लोग चले जो

technology को economy को नहीं देख रहे वह सिर्फ politics से geopolitics को देखते तो उसमें उनका एक बड़ा major सवाल यह आता है जो कि increasingly confusing होता जा रहा है वह जो China versus US वाला conundrum है ना वह वाला एक सवाल major आ रहा है और historically Pakistan के DNA में यह है कि हम तो दरमियान में हैं हम तो बस सब manage कर लेंगे. मुझे लग रहा है कि increasingly manage करना मुश्किल हो जाएगा. It's very tough. और I think impossible हो जाएगा क्योंकि जहां से ख़ासकर with Donald Trump coming in and him going very sort of aggressive on China आपका मसला यह है कि आप बिल्कुल China के साथ बैठे हुए

finance की economist की मैं irritate इसलिए हो जाता हूं कि वह IMF का loan आ जाएगा तो यह हो जाएगा I am like dude it's very simple जब उन्होंने देना होता है loan with zero condition 16,000,000,000 Ukraine को आधे घंटे में दे दिया ना और वह यार super power invade कर रही है उनकी वह क्या guarantees दे देंगे आप? हां जैसे मैं करूंगा जाता हूं उनका नहीं करेंगे. So the point is let's just call a spade a spade. तो अगर आपने देख लेते तो look at the geopolitics. I agree 100 with you. You cannot play that middle ground maybe for another two three years but it's getting tough. Yeah. Because like I said मैंने earlier क्या कहा था कि the wars have now shown up to the doorsteps of the respective empires. And so at that point there is a rush Russia is an empire superpower. I mean a superpower. China is a superpower. India is an emerging superpower and US is a superpower. Let's connect all the allies as well. So at this stage you have to pick a site that's kind of what it comes down to. I think let's look at it from a slightly different perspective. So industry I didn't understand why we're flipping to The US from China right or trying to play the two connectivity but जब largest scheme of things भी देखते हैं तो it actually starts to make a little bit more sense. आपने notice किया होगा suddenly India, जय शंकर actually came this time right? तो उनको भी कहीं से pressure आ रहा है कि यार इसको करें because basically issue यह है कि देखिए India is not ready India को वह pump up कर रहे हैं अपने पैसे से. यह मैंने आपको I think last time कहा था कि जैसे ही US में rate cut शुरू होंगे India की economy rise करना शुरू हो जाएगी right? You will see lots of money get in this cycle and India will become the third largest economy by 2030 if not not 2030 then the next cycle after that right? And so वहां पर आपने math देखनी है right? अगर 2030 तक China is the largest economy in the world and The US is second largest in the world and India is the third. तो अगर यह दोनों जो second and third है वह dollar में price हो जाए तो वह back dollar की dominance आ गई ना even if it's the digital dollar. तो वह एक वह अलग chess move है. Now from Pakistan's perspective हमारा मुझसे यह कि हमारी alliance है सारी Gulf states के साथ अगर आप UAE को देखें तो उन्होंने काफी deep partnerships करनी है India के साथ and same thing with the Saudis because उनको pressure यह आ रहा है कि भाई वह बात करें कि हम रमनभी में तेल बेचेंगे या China consumer is largest या India consumer oil का largest, right? US is an exporter now of energy. तो उन्होंने बेचना है किसी को अपना तेल. ठीक है वह ESG mandates और climate के सारे आपके you know alternate clean energy but those are I think decades Yeah. So वहां पर उन्होंने India को बेचना है तो अब उस scenario में हमारे पास वही choice है basically या तो हम China के साथ जाए but then China has to be ready to come and defend us. I think वह भी तैयार नहीं है. China यानी कि जब आपकी लड़ाई होती तो बोल देते हैं but not like US there you know वह भी उनका style थोड़ा सा different है. तो जो हो यह रहा है कि I think more than likely यह Gulf States, Pakistan, India यह सारा एक block वन जाएगा. जिसमें फिर you can see possibilities for Pakistan where lots of capital injection will come in. We have to get over that ego of ours. I also come from military family. India and Pakistan can never be friends and I used to be like when people suggested makes no sense. You can have separate because वह मैंने आपको जो zone बता दी है ना हम मीनाप में चलेंगे वह उधर south देशियों में तो उनको उन्होंने dominant कर दिया है बांग्लादेश उनके नीचे है. स्रीलंका के नीचे ले आए उनके right. स्रीलंका की भी economy का हमारी एक ही time पर economic warfare we both went in trouble right. All three went in trouble actually. And you have one of the geopolitics element of it. Right? वह बंगला देश दो हज़ार चौदह के बाद India के control में pretty much आ गया most of the elements. तो now we obviously can't tolerate that. Right. We are saying we will go with the states. अब foreign policy हम उनके basis पर ठीक है India से हम बना के रखते हैं but वह एक वह एक element आ गया है and then so it's less conflicting now because the world has just decided to change the maps कि जी अच्छा यह South Asia में Pakistan को हम इस side पर ले आते हैं

and so the the paradigm is shifting. The reason why I say ना कि power politics में तो I completely agree with your thesis but अगर मैं pure economic fundamentals पर जाऊं तो मैंने यह देखना है कि यार मेरा बंदा काम क्या करेगा? यार मैं इसको एक शहर की तरह देखूं या एक मोहल्ले की तरह देखूं या आपको Energy काम है आपकी gulf state से आएगी. हां but मेरा question उसमें यह है देखिए दोनों so let's let's look at the pros and cons right? एक आपका Iran, Pakistan, China वाला

Iran is still part of it but अब beach में Afghanistan जो है वह उसको China use करने की कोशिश कर गया उधर ऊपर से आएगा. हां. Central Asian but lot of those Central Asian republics also

were दिल्ली डाली. Yeah yeah. उनके ऊपर इतने internal pressures हैं ना. But वो again वो power politics है right? मैं यह कह रहा हूं कि अगर मैं purely fundamentals को देखूं तो Pakistan को चाहिए energy. Pakistan उसके पास क्या दे सकते हैं वो आपको जाकर क्योंकि हर अगर आप एक block बनाते हैं तो आप यह देख रहे हैं कि यार what does every single state have to offer for the other state. Labor. Right? So Pakistan के पास labor है. Pakistan जो है वह आपको food security दे सकता है. बहुत seriously दे सकता है पूरी Middle East को दे सकता है और similarly वह food security आपकी Central Asia को दे सकता है and so on. Pakistan जो है और दोनों blocks के अंदर अगर वह जाता है तो जाकर वह कहीं ना कहीं lock in होना पड़ेगा ताकि आप यह कहते हो कि यार you know what even if our economics right now doesn't make sense you will commit to us, right? With The Gulf my problem is that whatever Pakistan has to offer India has the opportunity to offer at a cheaper rate. Absolutely. Right? And so with China for example दो super powers हैं. With China आपके पास आपको यह बात मालूम है कि उनकी labor अब expensive हो चुकी हुई है. उनकी productivity, productive population कम reduce हो रही है year on year और उनको जो है ना effectively low value goods के लिए भी labor चाहिए. उनको दुनिया में और अच्छा they are also the global factory. So a lot of their industry is now becoming uncompetitive in their pricing. They have to move to countries like Africa और Pakistan. Exactly. Right? So उनके लिए it makes a lot more sense कि यार Africa की low value goods के लिए हम Pakistan से export करें. हम own करें लेकिन वह Pakistan में produce हो रही हो. Similarly अगर energy की बात आती है तो उनको अपनी energy security भी चाहिए तो उनको चाहे वह energy through हो रही हो. चाहे वह वह हो रही तो Pakistan plays an important role कि यार Iran की चली जाए. So I agree with you from that perspective that yes I don't think China को completely बाहर निकाल दिया जाएगा. The

issues come from the CPEX specific and energy trade component right? Right. तो वह वाली side so Pakistan ने अगर let's say alliance करनी है तो it from The US China can come in and do productivity here. US में trade कर रहे हैं ना China के साथ. उनको issue आ रहा है more from the side of energy transport, price and any currency of choice for China. Right? तो वह देखिए that battle we have to navigate. जो आपकी human resources की जो आप कह रहे हैं ना यार उसकी use even अगर let's say the Saudis try to become a regional superpower they're gonna need human beings right? So eventually they may set up factory and they need people in their country to within their zone to buy goods from them even if they put manufacturing plants there तो उसके लिए वह एक uplift होता है of regional economies right? तो that game will emerge on its own obviously it's gonna be chaotic. जो मुझे मसला है ना उसमें यह है कि आप UAE को देखेंगे पाकिस्तानी band है right? They have alliances with India जिस तरह भी human labour है उनकी अगर उनको वहां labour मंगवानी है तो वो सारी सारी India से आ रही है. नहीं look I can't change मैं खुद अपने घर में हर employer staff से fed up हूं because हम lazy call है यार मैं I can't change that right? People are more hard working देखिए again let's stop worrying about so many factors कि कोई भी चीज़ solve ना. अभी तक हो क्या रहा पिछले दो साल से. इतनी चीज़ें solve करनी की कोशिश करी जब कोई investor आता है project कोई नहीं है. Project की अभी pipeline नहीं बनी हुई. Right. तो in my opinion look there's people that don't rectify. मैंने आपको पहले ही बता दिया है देखिए आपके drivers और labourers जो है वह unproductive थे ना मुझे अक्सर लोगों ने मैंने पुछा कि why did you change everything to Filipino and to Indians कहते और south Indians आते हैं they don't take like five prayer breaks in a day और वह भी नकली वाली तेरी गोवास जाकर उसमें सो रहे हैं right? तो या हर पाक्षाणी जो credit for card fraud या स्नेह की हरकतें कर रहे right? तो वह तो आपकी अपनी nature है you have to change it right? That's why with the mess we're in. मेरे अक्सर जो friends हैं in within my circle I am actually baffled actually flabbergasted because जब मैं बात करता हूं कि corruption is root cause of our mess. तो it's just like corruption is not the problem. Then I start realizing holy shit. Sorry excuse my language but I start realizing कि वह values किसी के पास है ही नहीं. I think a lot of people have just gotten so used to taking money from elicip means कि it's just ok. It's considered completely normal. वह I can't change that fabric of a deterioration of society that is happened to typically happens once society you evolved as a country to like a super power middle power हम वह rise करने से पहले devolve कर गए right? That's something totally different right? But that doesn't mean some things disappear right? At the end of the day there still a lot of people here इसमें बहुत से by the way corruption यहां पर bottom में भी है और top में भी है. It's not like पूरे system में up and down है. Because I used to when I was abroad I used to think सिर्फ top पर यहां पर आकर में realization हुई कि bottom पर भी काफी ज़्यादा है right? In fact वह अक्सर वहां से लोग जो over the years became thugs and came to the top अब उन्होंने proliferate कर दिया पूरे system में. तो now let's come to the core of what I am talking about what your question was. Look the reflux की मैं बात कर रहा हूं यह होगी right? So what's not to say that all the data centers and all the companies that the saudis are trying to build in the tech space and trying to stay ahead in this AI game उन्होंने billions of dollars के funds launch किए हैं तो उसके जो data scientist हैं वह Pakistan में ना बैठे होंगे India itself is trying to become a super power Right? तो they may not be as open and I'll give you an example not as Indian founders can now be seen in The Gulf States because they would rather go and build in India because the opportunity is bigger. And so I think Pakistan की पाक्सानी की naturally एक demand आएगी in the tech realm. As far as drivers are concerned, cooks are concerned, all these things यार वह तो structural unemployment है ना तो I can't do much about that but I can tell you there's enough people that can innovate here and become either remote service industry for these developing developed markets around us they're no longer even developing they developed or the cream of the crop will actually be moved over there as people and India से भी आऐंगे but that's the melting pot right? अगर आप UAE में देखें तो three most foremost predominant nationalities in their pretty much corporate world are Indians, Lebanese, पाकिस्तानी and Egyptians and the funny thing is कि उन्होंने study की तो Indians और Lebanese nepotistic हैं कि जहां पर एक ही हद वह ले आए और पाकिस्तानी और Egyptians का उन्होंने यह determine किया कि वह अपने अपने लोगों को prolong करते हैं. हां. तो that's a fundamental problem we have in Pakistan right? तो and that's where I say the nation state itself is under question because यहां पर बरादरी है या tribe है. Nobody ever thinks about के पाकिस्तानी का क्या है? And frankly the only institution that's thinking about that is a military is the largest middle class in this country. Right,

interesting. मैं थोड़ा सा wrap up करता हूं. Probably जो concern है ना मेरा, जो मेरा पिछले दो साल में रहा और अभी भी इस conversation में भी रहा है, वह यही है कि जो solution अभी तक ज़्यादातर लोग आकर कह रहे हैं आपका thesis भी जो है और majority people जो solution कह रहे हैं, that's a solution for the top 5% max and everybody keeps on coming back and says कि यार even.

Trickle down हो गया यार. I mean trickle down is a theory. कुछ problem नहीं नहीं but I say trickle down होगा. नहीं ultimately the those that have access to capital

create. The reason why I don't agree with the trickle down is because India में नहीं हुआ. Right? India has a very similar problem. आज जब economist India को देखते हैं वह कहते हैं कि India ने fail इस phase से किया because उन्होंने services पर सारा का सारा pump कर दिया and manufacturing पर नहीं गए जब उनको जाना चाहिए था China went to manufacturing and they actually you know. Yeah that I agree with and we miss the same boat. And and we miss the same boat. अब मसला उसमें यह है कि bottom line ना मुझे जो bottom line आती है beyond the flashy words and all of that वह यह है कि यार what are we giving to the world? What are we taking from the world? It's as simple as that right? At this point in time unfortunately, yes, यह top 5% के शश्क हैं कि यार we can give them technology and we can give them this and that. But for the vast majority of people like a gulf maybe उनको अपना खाना चाहिए, उनको अपना meats चाहिए. उनको अपनी basics चाहिए जो कि चाहते रहेंगे वह और उसमें दुनिया में लोग आते हैं. So are we doing anything to ensure कि यार irrespective of technology

आपके आप मतलब I don't get it कि वहां पर Brazilian भी ही far है. अभी दूसरा गरमादा दूसरा. आप मुझे यह बताइए ना you keep calling guest electronic about the solutions right? Yeah. Which is what I see in Pakistan. Do you honestly think we are going get our stuff together to be able to fix things in the next six to ten years जो यह change आ रहे हैं? I think so. I'll tell you why. I'd

love to get your response. I think the way that we would do it is कि हमने ना individual actors से solutions ढूंढने की कोशिश की बार बार बार, right? और जो सबसे बड़ा concern है ना असमेरा, वह मेरा concern यह है कि हम American block में जाकर कोई deal करके फिर से semblance of prosperity दे देंगे अपनी कौम को पर फिर से वह lazy और corrupt रह जाएंगे. मुझे तो यह feeling आ रही कि short term targets. अगर आपको for example किसी तरीके से दोनों sides ditch करा दे ना अगर American और Chinese ditch करा दे. तो जो आपका जो आपका वह था ना कि यार हमारे लोग lazy हैं. Laziness is a direct by product of कि आपको comfort मिलती रहे. Sure. आप जैसे ही comfort हटाते हैं ना तो यह human instinct है कि even the laziest person goes out and tries to do something, right? The Chinese were वह heroin ची थे, को मैं हमेशा warehouse की missile वैसे दे देता हूं because that is much closer to our system than India. India का वह communist socialist type था. Indonesia हमारे जैसा था और Indonesia में एक elite capture बहुत बड़ा strong था institutional elite capture. Exactly. Pakistan today unfortunately is an institutional elite capture जिसके अंदर जाकर के आपकी inefficiencies built in है to ensure the hegemony of that institutional lead capture. 100%. Now that institutional lead capture is so inefficient that उसको वह कहीं ना कहीं खुद से unravel होगा Pakistan के अंदर. जो मुझे इस वक़्त वह हो रहा है ना जो जो जो the wrong read from the elite जो कि सारे हमारा आपका social circle है हिसाब सी बात है. वह यह है कि वह individual actors पर कर रहे हैं कि यार वह politician गलत है, वह यह गलत है, वह वह है. नहीं नहीं मैं तो इस लड़की से ही बात नहीं करता. हां वह उनको तो यह बात realign आपके

मुझे issue ही आता है right? Bureaucracy अक्सर politically aligned है. Right? So वह different parties के साथ है. Within the system or the proverbial proverbial establishment right? I actually because I interact directly indirectly I feel the will is there. Right. But they they are not sure how to execute it and when they go to the politically affiliated bureaucracy

और politicians वहां पर कुछ और agenda चल रहा है. It's short term. But मसला यह है कि मेरा मसला यह है कि उनको मेरा मसला यह है कि देखिए अगर एक एक निज़ाम है ना जो निज़ाम by design एक inefficient निज़ाम था but I don't blame them. I don't call the corrupt the corrupt because they were born into a corrupt system where the corruption doesn't seem like corruption anymore.

Of a system that no longer exists. Absolutely. तो I am saying there has to be some outside the box thinking. I can only advise individuals right? I am not a national planner. So I can only tell the people around me This is what I have done for the last ten years. जो जो मेरे दोस्त हैं I want to take my friends along with me. I have taught them about debasement. Right? Simultaneously जो जो मेरे founders and younger people around me I try to guide them on the coming changes trying to figure out how to solve problems for that world. That's that's my footprint of what I can impact. Right? I hope there's a 100 other people that are doing this in their respective fields and I think they are in Pakistan and in but the thing is कि as collectively as a state the entire people at the helm of affairs I think they themselves are not aware of what to do. Absolutely. Because मैं कभी इधर कभी socialism sun रहा होता हूं कभी मैं वह capitalism sun रहा होता हूं, कभी मैं sun रहा हूं शरिया law, कभी मैं sun रहा कहा evolve करने की कोशिश करें. मेरे पीछे से एक बड़ी अच्छी podcast हुई है with an academic.

He he was previously the chief economist at the planning commission as well. अच्छा उन्होंने बड़ा एक interesting concept लेकर आया. उन्होंने कहा कि कि जी we are actually now within the next three to five years we are going to enter the Third Republic Of Pakistan and the way that you were. उन्होंने कहा जी आप France को देखते ना तो France के पांच छह Republic आ चुकी है और वह हर दफाई एक नया social contract आता है. तो उन्होंने कहा कि हमारा मसला ही होता है. We are right now trying to evolve out of our problems. He said you can't evolve out of it because अब आपको जो rate of change है वह इतना rapid है आप उसके अंदर से नहीं कर सकते. So एक point ये है which is why I looked at all of different countries जहां पर Bangladesh में अगर revolution आई है, Sri Lanka में revolution आई है या Indonesia में 98 के अंदर एक तीस साला निज़ाम crumble होकर उससे नया निज़ाम निकला. Eventually आपने उस point पर जाना है. Nobody is ready to accept it. Nobody is ready to accept the fact that ok now we have to radically change the way that we do things. Right? 100%. अब either you accept it and you negotiate on ok the new system what can we still salvage and what are what you are going to have. जो case में conflict है ना आपका वह मसला यह है कि every there is a side that wants a completely old system.

There is a side that wants a completely new system. दोनों scary हैं. And the people implementing it don't even understand the new system. The new system exactly. Old system भी सैयदेगी I mean समझते हैं. तो दोनों risky हैं क्योंकि नया system में आप completely switch कर जाएंगे. अरे I'll tell you this when I travel a lot to the Gulf States they are switched on. They know exactly क्या changes आ रही है दुनिया में. They have positioned themselves. यहां पर आप बात करें top down like at the top layers of people implementing. They think technology is वह जो IT वाला बंदा है email का server चलाता है And to miss this particular element के how it's and while they're still on their phones. Yeah. It's it's actually mind boggling तो मैं मैं वही आप जो कह रहे हैं कि change एक वह आएगी seismic shift it's a valuable piece of land and population. Yeah. We may not be as sovereign as we think I don't think we are that sovereign anyways. But so that's why I am alluding to creation of a economic zone gradually because human bodies are gonna be needed. वह यार जब system अभी हमारे system नहीं control में है एक दो आप देखिए भाई यह पाकिस्तानी है जब वहां पर land करते हैं किसी भारमोद में तो land में खड़े होते हैं. यहां पर होते तो line नहीं होती. Right? तो it's just the perceived organizational behavior में the perceived outcome dictature commitment to the system. We have failed organization. We are a failed company in terms of how you operated, right? It's in distress. तो either somebody else has to come and significantly help us and harness the resources both in the ground as in रेकोडिग and other elements and the human resource or will become like a failed state. I think we'll just have alliances with these other states because we're a nuclear armed country. Let's talk about the glass half full right? We a lot of smart people. We have just as many smart people as India. Pakistan is a mini India and India was in the same mess in 1990. 80s and 90s. यमुन मोहन they had to go through this closed economy scenario. So there's two Pakistans there's one that's India 2013 where tech adoption was starting to radically move adoption was taking place at a rapid pace and then we have the structural reforms Pakistan that is going to require a decade to fix. Right? So you're looking at stagflation and potentially deflation in the brick and mortar economy and you're looking at rapid growth simultaneously in the tech economy. तो अबू rather than lumping everyone into one equation, let's take the tech talent, let's take the talent. You don't need to be technology by programmers. You could be somebody really strong at L'Oreal or like an FMCG and you get up and you say, look, I'm gonna go and build this tech company because you conceptually if you understand it you can just hire the resources and with a lot of programming AI it's getting cheaper to build a unicorn right? So innovation is coming ahead and more than likely a lot of these companies will enter The Gulf States to partner with them to tap into वहां पर जो capital market की depth है. Right? And so that's why I seeing more and more of a regional economic zone emerging because of the flow of intellectual capital and human capital back and forth and look ultimately we are a big market. Right? तो वहां पर हो सकता आपकी जो size skyscrapers बने हुए हैं वो eventually इमार बनाए या कोई सौदी developer आकर बनाए. Right. हो सकता कि आपकी जो पूरी जो infrastructure है वो basically वो fund करें for bullet trains and for you know highways. Basically you're

seeing a new rising class and then that rising class will define the everything out of the There is chaos. Let's not lose hope. वह shifts हैं. Opportunities there. Interesting. मैं इसको wrap up करूंगा. एक last सवाल मेरे दिमाग़ में आया था जो कि मैं बिल्कुल भूल गया हूं. हां हां, सवाल यह है कि बिल्कुल सादा तरीके से ज़्यादा complication में जाए बगैर. एक time था दो हज़ार बीस से लेकर दो हज़ार बाइस के दिन याद. Actually उससे पहले भी actually दो हज़ार आठ से लेकर दो हज़ार बारह तक एक बड़ा depression थी दुनिया में. दो हज़ार बारह से लेकर दो हज़ार बाइस तक ना एक एक एक बड़ा वह feeler था कि यार you know what like let's go do things and the like life is gonna be great and aspirationally लोगों कि वह ठीक है. मैं यह मेहनत करके मैं fire goals achieve करूंगा और मैं इस तरह से हो जाऊंगा. On a short term do you think कि हमारे पास अगले तीन चार साल के अंदर कोई ऐसा साल आएगा जिसके अंदर suddenly क्योंकि

Rates ऊपर जाएंगे पूरी दुनिया से, पैसा जो है, dollars जो है. तो sentiment एकदम से positive में shift जैसे ही rates cut होते हैं liquidity flush हो जाती है cash तो everybody so sentiment down to घर के अंदर आपकी tension कितनी है अपनी wife के साथ? Is linked to कि कितनी आपकी stress है काम पर या business पर? वह सारी emanate कर रही है liquidity scarcity से. Right. जैसे ही cash flush होता वहां भी चीज़ें ठीक हो जाती हैं. उसमें I mean tension tension goes down to domestic. Right. Into and pretty much in all elements, right? When times are bad everybody is angry. Right. And जैसे ही times अच्छे होते हैं like liquidity flush होती है but यह वही वाले cycles हैं जि मैं बात कर रहा हूं लेकिन उसमें underlying currency debase होती रहेगी. But यह जो twenty twenty five का आपने कहा कि liquidity

finally आएगी और एकदम से sentiment थोड़ा सा बहाल होगा. Just for one year. Just for one. हां, so मैं सवाल यह है कि अगर मैं medium और long term की बात करूं तो are we looking like a at a at a 2029

lost decade sort of a situation anytime in the future? I think we're at the tail end of this monetary cycle that we started in 1971 and some unknown monetary system to us is evolving. जिसमें that's where these battles and changes are coming, right? वह emerge करेगा last time जब हुआ था तो it was pretty chaotic like 1914 and 1945 काफी ज़्यादा लोग मर गए पूरे पूरे मुल्क level हो गए थे. तो it's very different times we are living in. तो इसीलिए वह जो हम discussions कर रहे हैं you know कि इस तरह होगा उस तरह होगा planning करेंगे. I am more worried at this time कि वह time तो गुज़र गया है. अब वह crisis आ गया तो अब आप crisis में firefighting कर रहे हैं. यह वह time है कि you have to figure out कि how do I survive as a nation or as an individual because the debasement in my opinion is be very brutal. जो यह अगला cycle में है. It will be brutal. Society, people, ordinary everyone. देखिए the ones that are hedged are gonna continue to thrive. Right? And the ones that are not hedged are going to feel the debasement and loss of birdsing power जो pressure cycle में हुई. हर बार वह amplify हो रहा है ना और अब वह cycle shrink हो गया है. By the way last time भी वह cycle disease पर चल रहा था because rates आपके raise हुए थे 2017 में उसका lag effect आया था when the culminating the twenty twenty crisis and then the subsequent boom only after the print जब सबने पैसे print किए थे उसके बाद boom आए ना फिर उसके बाद inflation आ गई फिर rates high किए inflation को curve करने के लिए तो एक cycle चल रहा है. Twenty

twenty में तो narrative था ना COVID वाला तो आपने print कर लिए. अभी क्या narrative था? Actually black swan था ना नहीं so अभी

मुझे थोड़ा डर लग रहा है कि कोई एकदम से होता नहीं नहीं उधर भी recession आई I mean they have the mechanism को अपनी inflation export कर देते हैं. Trump will probably do some tax cuts or whatever I mean it's not good because 35,000,000,000,000 के debt पर है ना eventually तो वहां पर आएगा crash. I think there's a pullback coming in 2627 which will be a serious market correction. Not gonna be the end of the world. It's a buying opportunity. You build a position again and then you again sell it in the 2829 peak and वह gradually हो ही रहा है कि जैसे ऐसे how do I put it? If you know your all currencies are going to basically getting debased and going to zero in value. Right. You would take as much out of the system as you could to build the new system and then I won't point but take a look at where all the money is going into what pieces to construct and that's why I keep coming back to digital and technology. Age से हम आए थे industrial mechanization age में वह age खत्म हो गई है. अब वह mechanization age जो है वह जारी है technology age में बल्कि digital age में हां. तो we are at the cusp 1945 is a defining moment we are living in the 1945 world order. Some new world orders coming out of 2030 or the you know four five years or ten years after that but at that time you wanna be probably going back and looking at the playbook जो आपके great grandparents ने depending on how old you are और grandparents जो उन्होंने playbook पर survive किया था या thrive किया था

उस पर आपने खेलने you can't play at your parents playbook. Makes sense फ़ैसल thank you so much for taking the time out and sharing all that insight.

I am excited to see तिषार tank का भी कुछ episodes रहती है? I think so. Think अभी अभी seven हुए हैं तो मेरे ख्याल से total 13 थे. And this is gonna happen every year. So is this a long term commitment या यह हर साल renew होगा you will see next year कैसे है? It's a one year commitment. It's up to them whether they call back the judges or not. We'll see. I mean it also depends on performance and how the market responds.

Makes sense. Sir thank you so much for coming in and sharing all that insight. Yeah thank you for having me always a pleasure. And for all of you guys thank you so much for watching. अगर आपको यह episode पसंद आई और मैं दोस्तों का साथ ज़रूर share करिएगा. What do you think about जो आजकल के हालात हैं जो confusion हो रही है जो परेशानी हो रही है geopolitically दुनिया भर के जो हालात हैं उसमें आपको क्या होता हुआ नज़र आ रहा है? ख़ासकर Pakistan के बारे में मुझे बताएं what do you think Pakistan should be doing right now considering के दो बड़े हाथियों की लड़ाई हो रही है तो कौन सा हाथी जो है कौन सी what's the right bet for us and then उसी के follow up के अंदर जो local आप एक instability देख रहे हैं उसका potential outcome आप कहां जाते हुए देख रहे I would love to know your thoughts in the comment section below but anyways this was सैमिल असन जैदी you are watching thought behind things thank you so much for watching and I will see you in the next one.