Osama

global energy market analyst

Compiled from 1 recorded interview. Every statement below is drawn from the passage cited beside it.

Osama Rizvi is a global energy market analyst. Rizvi has said that the gap between paper and physical oil prices is $35 to $40, its highest level in history. He has also said that Pakistan's petrol price rose 21 percent overnight, and that Pakistan's food security problem exists with or without the war.

Career

Rizvi is a global energy market analyst. He has said that his team tracks US energy operators first hand. Rizvi has also said that Pakistan's petrol price rose 21 percent overnight, and that he made an explainer on it. [1]

Views on paper and physical oil markets

Rizvi has said that oil trades in two markets, paper markets and physical markets. He has said paper oil markets are driven by traders and algorithms, and that the benchmark price shown on screens is a futures price. He has also said that the arrangement is called EFP, exchange for physical. [1]

In normal times, Rizvi has said, paper and physical prices differ by only a dollar or two. He has said the gap between them is now $35 to $40, its highest level in history. Rizvi has said that price convergence can happen very quickly and can go either way, and that the screen price could move toward $130 to $150 if the war continues. [1]

Rizvi has said dated Brent reached $145 to $150 a barrel and dipped to $132 the week before. He has said Middle East crude reached $170 at one point, while Brent did not rise as high, and that Pakistan should track Middle East crude prices rather than Brent or WTI. He has also said the price of middle distillates such as jet fuel has reached $260. [1]

Rizvi has said the ex-refinery price has risen by about 100 percent, and that the ex-refinery import price rose by 70 to 100 percent in itself. He has said a 1 percent cut in supply raises the price by about $4. [1]

Views on global supply

Rizvi has said there is no historical precedent for the Strait of Hormuz being closed. He has said energy loadings fell to about 3.5 to 3.8 million barrels a day during the war, and that more than 50 energy sites have been hit, cutting about 10 to 13 million barrels of production. He has said the world is in a supply deficit of about 25 to 30 million barrels right now. [1]

Rizvi has said the world oil market has a 500 million barrel shortfall, which has never happened before. He has said the current supply shock is about 20 percent, against 7 to 8 percent in 1973. Citing analysts, he has said that annual supply could be cut by one to two million barrels if disruption continues, and that IEA data shows demand fell by about 80,000 to 90,000 barrels a day. [1]

Rizvi has said the world will enter a tighter energy and oil market for at least the near future, even after the war ends. He has said he expects a disrupted supply market for six to eight months, after which supply should settle. [1]

Rizvi has said 40 to 45 percent of world oil is moving on the dark fleet of untracked tankers, and that OPEC spare capacity is 3 to 4 million barrels a day. He has said non-OPEC supply from Guyana is an oil revolution that Pakistan should learn from. He has said US operators in Guyana, Argentina and Mexico are now moving to the Gulf for fracking, and that a Shell site was hit. [1]

Views on crisis and the economy

Rizvi has said the world has been in near-constant crisis since COVID, and has referred to the idea of a polycrisis. He has said Pakistanis have grown used to living with a permanent crisis. He has said a lockdown is an extreme case, but Pakistan could face one if this continues. Rizvi has also said interest rate rises take about one and a half years to show in the economy. [1]

Views on fertilizer and food security

Rizvi has said gas is a major feedstock for fertilizer plants, and its price at one stage rose above oil. He has said about 40 percent of India's fertilizer came from the Persian Gulf and is now effectively offline. He has said a State Bank of Pakistan report puts 38 to 40 percent of households as food insecure, and that Pakistan's food security problem exists with or without the war. [1]

Appearances

DateTitleWhere
2026-04-22 The oil price on your screen is not the price Pakistan pays Thought Behind Things

Frequently asked questions

Who is Osama Rizvi?

Osama Rizvi is a global energy market analyst. He has said that his team tracks US energy operators first hand.[1]

What does Osama Rizvi do?

Osama Rizvi works as a global energy market analyst. He has said his team tracks US energy operators first hand, and he has made an explainer on a 21 percent overnight rise in Pakistan's petrol price.[1]

What has Osama Rizvi said about paper and physical oil prices?

Osama Rizvi has said that oil trades in two markets, paper markets and physical markets. He has said that the gap between paper and physical prices is now $35 to $40, its highest level in history, against a difference of a dollar or two in normal times.[1]

What has Osama Rizvi said about the Strait of Hormuz?

Osama Rizvi has said there is no historical precedent for the Strait of Hormuz being closed. He has said energy loadings fell to about 3.5 to 3.8 million barrels a day during the war.[1]

What has Osama Rizvi said about food security in Pakistan?

Osama Rizvi has said that Pakistan's food security problem exists with or without the war. He has also said a State Bank of Pakistan report puts 38 to 40 percent of households as food insecure.[1]

What has Osama Rizvi said about the length of the supply disruption?

Osama Rizvi has said he expects a disrupted supply market for six to eight months, after which supply should settle. He has also said the world will enter a tighter energy and oil market for at least the near future, even after the war ends.[1]

References

  1. The oil price on your screen is not the price Pakistan pays . Thought Behind Things , 2026-04-22.
Show the source passages (43 statements)
  1. Osama Rizvi is a global energy market analyst. I sit down with Global Energy Market Analyst Osama Rizvi to decode the massive disconnect
  2. Osama has said his team tracks US energy operators first hand. US ke operators jo hain kyunke usko primary vision mein hum log first hand track kar rahe hote hain
  3. Osama has said Pakistan's petrol price rose 21 percent overnight, and he made an explainer on it. jab ye petrol price badhi hai Pakistan mein overnight 21%, to I made an explainer
  4. Osama has said the benchmark price shown on screens is a futures price. Uski jo aapko screen ke upar is waqt benchmark price nazar aa rahi hai, woh uski, use bolte hain future price.
  5. Osama has said oil trades in two markets, paper markets and physical markets. Oil markets ki do side hain, ek hai paper markets, ek hai physical markets.
  6. Osama has said paper oil markets are driven by traders and algorithms. Ye traders ki duniya hai, ye algorithms ki duniya hai.
  7. Osama has said dated Brent reached $145 to $150 a barrel. Dated Brent ki price agar aap dekhein, to woh to $145 to $150 pe gayi thi.
  8. Osama has said dated Brent dipped to $132 the week before. Last week woh thodi si $132 pe aayi thi
  9. Osama has said the price of middle distillates such as jet fuel has reached $260. middle distillates jo hain, jet fuel hai aur mazeed aise products hain jo industry mein use hote hain, unki price as I has as I has $260 gayi hai.
  10. Osama has said the gap between paper and physical oil prices is $35 to $40, its highest level in history. Is waqt ye gap 35 se 40 dollar ka hai, jo ke history ke andar apne highest point ke upar pahunch chuka hai
  11. Osama has said that in normal times paper and physical prices differ by only a dollar or two. Normal halaat ke andar physical aur ye jo future market maine batayi hai, ye converge karte hain, inmein zyada gap nahi hota, ek ya do dollar ka hota hai.
  12. Osama has said Pakistan should track Middle East crude prices rather than Brent or WTI. Main Pakistan ke liye Brent nahi dekhunga, main Pakistan ke liye WTI nahi dekhunga, main Pakistan ke liye dekhunga ke Middle East ke oil ki kya price hai is waqt.
  13. Osama has said the ex-refinery price has risen by about 100 percent. hamare liye ex-refinery price mein takreeban 100% increase aa chuka hai.
  14. Osama has said the ex-refinery import price rose by 70 to 100 percent in itself. Petroleum levy bhi uska hissa tha of course, but ye jo ex-refinery jo import price thi, ye in of itself 70 to 100% badhi hai.
  15. Osama has said Middle East crude reached $170 at one point, while Brent did not rise as high. Middle East ka oil ek point pe 170 pe bhi chala gaya tha, 160 pe bhi chala gaya tha, jabke Brent itna higher nahi gaya tha.
  16. Osama has said the screen price could move toward $130 to $150 if the war continues. Mere kehne ka maqsad ye bhi hai ke even agar ye jang chalti rahegi to aapki screen pe bhi jo price nazar aati hai, woh bhi aahista aahista aapko 130, 140, 150 dollar pe jaati hui nazar aayegi.
  17. Osama has said price convergence can happen very quickly and can go either way. Toh the convergence happens very quickly, can go either way.
  18. Osama has said the arrangement is called EFP, exchange for physical. Yehi jo contract maine $100 ka liya tha, isko EFP bolte hain, exchange for physical.
  19. Osama has said there is no historical precedent for the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Pehli baat ye ke historical precedent nahi milta ke state of Hormuz band ho jaye.
  20. Osama has said energy loadings fell to about 3.5 to 3.8 million barrels a day during the war. energy ki loadings thi, woh 20 million barrels thi ya 19 million barrels thi, then during the war it has fallen per day. During the war it has fallen to somewhere around 3.5, 3.8 million barrels per day.
  21. Osama has said more than 50 energy sites have been hit, cutting about 10 to 13 million barrels of production. energy strike sites jo hit hui hain, 50 se zyada ab ho gayi hain, uski wajah se jo production lost hui hai, woh bhi koi 10 se 13 million barrels ki hai.
  22. Osama has said the world is in a supply deficit of about 25 to 30 million barrels right now. all in all hum koi 25 se 30 million barrel ke deficit mein hain is waqt puri duniya mein.
  23. Osama has said IEA data shows demand fell by about 80,000 to 90,000 barrels a day. To woh bhi IEA ke mutabiq koi 80,000 to 90,000 barrels per day kami aayi hai
  24. Osama has said, citing analysts, that annual supply could be cut by one to two million barrels if disruption continues. agar analysts ke mutabiq agar ye aisa chalta raha, to har mahina agar ye supply disruption rehti hai, to overall salana ek se do million barrel ki supply waise hi cut ho jayegi.
  25. Osama has said the world oil market has a 500 million barrel shortfall, which has never happened before. Matlab is waqt 500 million barrels ka shortfall duniya ki oil markets mein hai. It has never happened before.
  26. Osama has said the current supply shock is about 20 percent, against 7 to 8 percent in 1973. Compare it with the shock of 1973, 7 to 8 percent supply shock tha, is waqt 20 percent hai.
  27. Osama has said the world will enter a tighter energy and oil market for at least the near future, even after the war ends. war khatam hone ke bawajood we will be stepping into a tighter energy/oil market in the at least for the near future.
  28. Osama has said a lockdown is an extreme case, but Pakistan could face one if this continues. I think it's an extreme case but agar aisa chalta raha toh Philippines mein aisa hua hai, Australia mein aisa hua hai, Pakistan mein bhi aisa ho jayega
  29. Osama has said a 1 percent cut in supply raises the price by about $4. Agar 1 percent supply kam hoti hai toh 4 dollar price badhti hai
  30. Osama has said interest rate rises take about one and a half years to show in the economy. Agar interest rate badhta hai uska impact dedh saal baad show hota hai.
  31. Osama has said he expects a disrupted supply market for six to eight months, after which supply should settle. anywhere between 6 to 8 months. We will see a disrupted supply market but after that once again we will settle down
  32. Osama has said the world has been in near-constant crisis since COVID. rather from COVID, the world has been in a state of consistent perpetual crisis it seems
  33. Osama has referred to the idea of a polycrisis. what Adam Tooze in his book Shutdown says, the polycrisis.
  34. Osama has said Pakistanis have grown used to living with a permanent crisis. khaas tor pe Pakistan mein rehte hue humein kuch ye aadat ho gayi hui hai ke ek permanent crisis ka face chalta rehta hai.
  35. Osama has said 40 to 45 percent of world oil is moving on the dark fleet of untracked tankers. isse kitne percent 40-45 percent duniya ka tel is waqt dark fleet jo hai aise shipping tankers jinko track nahi kiya ja sakta woh leke ja rahe hain.
  36. Osama has said OPEC spare capacity is 3 to 4 million barrels a day. production levels kam karne ki wajah se OPEC ki spare capacity bhi stand karti hai 3 se 4 million barrels per day.
  37. Osama has said non-OPEC supply from Guyana is an oil revolution that Pakistan should learn from. Guyana non-OPEC supply se bolte hain hum, it's an oil revolution happening, multi-billion dollar oil revolution happening actually aur Pakistan ko actually isse seekhna chahiye.
  38. Osama has said US operators in Guyana, Argentina and Mexico are now moving to the Gulf for fracking. Guyana ke andar, Argentina ke andar, Mexico ke andar aur kaafi zyada US ke operators jo hain kyunke usko primary vision mein hum log first hand track kar rahe hote hain, they are now moving to Gulf as well for fracking.
  39. Osama has said a Shell site was hit. Acha Shell Pearl GTL bhi hit hua.
  40. Osama has said gas is a major feedstock for fertilizer plants, and its price at one stage rose above oil. gas ek one of the major feed stocks hai in fertilizer plants ke liye aur uski jo price hai woh at one stage oil se bhi zyada badh gayi thi
  41. Osama has said a State Bank of Pakistan report puts 38 to 40 percent of households as food insecure. according to a report by State Bank of Pakistan 38 to 40 percent households are food insecure
  42. Osama has said about 40 percent of India's fertilizer came from the Persian Gulf and is now effectively offline. India jo hai woh net importer hai of fertilizer jo ke jisme se 40% of fertilizer unka Persian Gulf se aata tha jo ke is waqt effectively completely offline hai.
  43. Osama has said Pakistan's food security problem exists with or without the war. Toh jo food security ka issue Pakistan ke liye overall ek perpetual exist karta hai with or without war.